Brent oil nears major support as peace hopes rise
Brent crude has fallen back towards a key $93-$96 support zone as hopes for easing tensions between the US and Iran improve the outlook for supply through the Strait of Hormuz. The market is now close to a major technical decision point, with support potentially setting up either a deeper reversal towards $72 or a renewed move back towards the $119 highs.
Founder, Mott Capital Management
Peace hopes are pulling Brent back towards a critical support zone
Oil prices are falling sharply as talks of peace between the US and Iran raise hopes that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open and that crude will continue to flow out of the region. That shift in sentiment has pulled Brent below $100 and pushed the market back towards an important support range between $93 and $96.
This area matters because it has already proved its importance once before. The last time Brent traded in that range was in early April, and support held firmly enough to help trigger a rebound towards the highs near $119.
The same area could now become the neckline of a double-top pattern
The technical setup is more fragile this time because Brent may be forming a double top. If the market breaks below the $93-$96 region, that area would begin to act as the neckline of the pattern and could confirm a broader bearish reversal.
In that scenario, Brent could move back towards the levels seen before the war shock in late February, around $72. That makes the current support zone one of the most important technical thresholds in the market right now.
Brent crude daily chart with RSI, extracted from TradingView on 25 May 2026.
If support holds, the upside could reopen quickly
The bearish case is not the only one in play. If the neckline and support area continue to hold, it would suggest that Brent is once again stabilising at a level where buyers are prepared to step back in.
That could open the way for a rebound towards the previous highs around $119 and potentially beyond. In other words, the current test is important not only because it may confirm a top, but also because holding support could re-establish the wider uptrend.
RSI suggests momentum currently favours another test of support
Momentum indicators are leaning towards the bearish side for now. The relative strength index has turned lower, suggesting that downside momentum has taken over and increasing the probability of a fresh test of support.
That leaves Brent at a major crossroads. Whether the $93-$96 zone breaks or holds may determine the next significant swing in oil prices.
Brent oil nears key technical level
Brent oil is testing an important support area around $94, leaving the market at a technical crossroads. If that level continues to hold, Brent could rebound towards the converging short-term moving averages and potentially extend higher, but a break below support would weaken the outlook materially.
Oil prices could undermine Japan's latest yen intervention
Japan's latest effort to support the yen may prove short-lived if higher oil prices keep driving up the country's demand for dollars. That leaves USD/JPY, Brent and the broader inflation-growth trade-off at the heart of the market's next move.
