The Week Ahead: UK CPI, Fed minutes, Walmart results

The final two weeks of August typically brings a significant summer slowdown. This year is unlikely to be an exception, and both the economic and earnings calendars reflect that. Nevertheless, traders and investors can still look ahead to the latest UK inflation data, and the Federal Reserve’s FOMC July meeting minutes, both due on Wednesday, followed by earnings from giant US retailer Walmart on Thursday. The final week of August is likely to be even quieter, although Nvidia's results are due on Wednesday 26 August, which may cut holidays short.

UK CPI

Wednesday 19 August

Analysts forecast that UK inflation has accelerated to 0.4% month-on-month in July, up from 0.1% in June, with a rise to 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.6%. The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to slow to 2.5% year-on-year, from 2.6%. With no Bank of England meeting until 17 September, and no expectations of a change in UK interest rates in the foreseeable future – unless the number surprises to the upside – this report seems unlikely to move markets much.

A hot CPI figure could be bullish for GBP/USD; but anything in line with or cooler than analysts’ expectations may weaken the pair, especially given that the FX rate has been unable to break through resistance near $1.355. If it can push higher and break through resistance, it has room to rise to $1.36. However, failure to break out, or a decline below the 10-day exponential moving average and support at $1.344, could result in GBP/USD falling back to roughly $1.32.

GBP/USD chart, September 2025-August 2026

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Fed minutes

Wednesday 19 August

This will be the second round of FOMC minutes released under Kevin Warsh’s leadership, and markets will again be parsing them for clues about the committee’s tone and whether a rate hike lies in the Fed’s future. However, given the Fed’s new lack of forward guidance, the market may have a tough time finding any insightful information.

The USD/JPY pair has been the market's focus for some time now, and has rebounded following intervention by the US and Japan. The FX rate has moved above the 10-day exponential moving average, which may indicate that the yen is due to weaken further, meaning USD/JPY could be set to rise.

An FOMC minutes release that lacks forward guidance could cut both ways, but more recently the trend has been for long-end rates to rise amid an uncertain rate path, which could translate into dollar strength, potentially pushing USD/JPY back above ¥160.50.

USD/JPY chart, February-August 2026

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Walmart Q2 earnings

Thursday 20 August

Walmart is expected to report fiscal Q2 2027 earnings of $0.74 per share, up 9.1% year-on-year, with revenue up 5.3% to $186.9bn. For the fiscal third quarter, analysts expect year-on-year earnings to grow 9.8% to $0.68 per share, with revenue up 5% to $188.3bn.

Walmart’s options positioning is neutral heading into the results, so hedging flows may have little to no impact on the stock price after the earnings release. Additionally, ‘call gamma’ suggests resistance is at $120, while ‘put gamma’ suggests support is at $105. The technical chart shows resistance around $115 – a breakout above that level could push the stock towards $125, and open the possibility of filling the gap created on 20 May near $130.

It’s worth noting that momentum is very close to a bullish turn. Since February, the relative strength index has been forming a series of lower highs, indicating that bearish momentum remains dominant. However, a push above $115 on the technical charts could shift momentum and trigger a strong rally. If the stock were to break support at $105 instead, however, it may trigger a drop towards the gap created on 19 November near $100.

Walmart share price chart, March 2025-August 2026

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic & company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases, plus selected UK, US and other listed company results:

Monday 17 August
• Canada: July consumer price index (CPI)
• China: July industrial production, July retail sales
• Japan: Q2 gross domestic product (GDP)
• US: August Empire State manufacturing survey
• Results: Costain (HY), Duos Technologies Group (Q2), Fabrinet (Q4), Flexsteel (Q4), MTI Wireless Edge (Q2), Optima (FY)

Tuesday 18 August
• Germany: August ZEW economic sentiment survey
• UK: June average earnings, unemployment rate
• US: July building permits, housing starts, industrial production, pending home sales
• Results: Cambridge Nutritional Sciences (FY), Empresaria Group (HY), Home Depot (Q2), Keysight (Q3), Morgan Advanced Materials (HY), Synectics (HY), Toll Brothers (Q3)

Wednesday 19 August
• Germany: July consumer price index (CPI)
• UK: July CPI, producer price index (PPI), retail price index (RPI)
• US: Federal Open Market Committee minutes
• Results: Analog (Q3), Ithaca Energy (HY), Kenmare Resources (HY), Lowe’s (Q2), Oxford Nanopore Technologies (HY), Target (Q2), TJX (Q2)

Thursday 20 August
• Australia: July unemployment rate
• China: PBoC interest rate decision
• Germany: July PPI
• Japan: July trade balance
• US: August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, weekly initial jobless claims
• Results: Capital (HY), John Deere (Q3), Hays (FY), Ross Stores (Q2), Walmart (Q2)

Friday 21 August
• Australia: August flash manufacturing & services purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs)
• Germany: August flash manufacturing & services PMIs
• Eurozone: August consumer confidence,
• flash manufacturing & services PMIs
• Japan: July CPI
• UK: August GfK consumer confidence, flash manufacturing & services PMIs, July retail sales
• US: August flash manufacturing & services PMIs
• Results: BJ's Wholesale Club (Q2), Flowers Foods (Q2), Hunting (HY), IntChains (Q2), The Buckle (Q2)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.