The Week Ahead: ECB rate decision, US CPI, Oracle earnings

Published: Friday, 4 September 2026 at 12.30pm (UK)

The coming week could be significant for markets, with the European Central Bank’s interest-rate decision and US consumer price index (CPI) report for August. The inflation data could help determine whether the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates later this month.

Oracle is also due to report its first-quarter results, on the back of a sharp fall in the share price over recent months. Traders and investors will pay particular attention to growth in its data centre business, particularly with the prospect of Anthropic and OpenAI going public in the coming months. This could provide a clearer signal of underlying demand for AI compute.

Oracle Q1 earnings

Thursday 10 September
The NYSE-listed software and cloud provider is expected to report an 18.5% rise in fiscal first-quarter 2027 earnings to $1.74 a share, with revenue forecast to increase by 28.3% to $19.1bn. Capital expenditure is expected to more than double to $19.3bn, up from $8.5bn a year earlier.

In Q2, analysts expect earnings to fall by 16% to $1.90 a share, compared with $2.26 a year earlier. Revenue is forecast to rise by 32.1% to $21.2bn, while capital expenditure is expected to increase by 85% to $22.3bn.

The options market implies a potential 9.5% move following the results. Positioning is bullish, but an unwinding of dealer hedging flows could put downward pressure on the shares. Options gamma positioning indicates significant interest around $140, with resistance near $200.

From a technical perspective, Oracle shares are trading near resistance at $155. A breakout above the upper end of the range, around $157, could open the way towards $180. Conversely, a break below $150 might trigger a decline towards $140. If that support level fails, the shares may slide further, towards $120.

Oracle share price, September 2025 – present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

ECB rate decision

Thursday 10 September
The market is pricing in an almost 100% chance of a rate hike at this week’s meeting. However, the ECB is not expected to raise rates again until perhaps spring 2027. Investors will therefore be listening closely for any signals on the timing of the next potential increase.

The ECB’s guidance could have a significant impact on the EUR/USD pair. Despite markets pricing in a September rate hike, the euro has struggled to strengthen against the dollar recently. After a substantial rally, the euro has pulled back since mid-August. The key question is whether this is simply a retracement within a broader uptrend, or the start of a more sustained decline.

The euro has now retraced about 38.2% of its advance from the August lows to around $1.1710. A dovish outlook from the ECB could put further pressure on the currency, with a break below $1.155 potentially triggering a decline towards longer-term support around $1.135. A more hawkish message, however, may support a move up towards $1.18.

EUR/USD, February 2026 – present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

US CPI

Friday 11 September
Analysts expect headline CPI to rise by 0.4% month-on-month (m/m) in August, up from 0.1% in July. Core CPI is forecast to increase by 0.2% m/m, in line with July’s reading. This will be the final major piece of economic data available to the Fed ahead of its September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

A hotter-than-expected reading would probably increase pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates in September. A cooler reading could give policymakers more time to remain patient and assess how inflation evolves over the coming months.

The report is also likely to have a material impact on assets such as gold, which has been trading broadly inversely to the dollar. A cooler-than-expected CPI reading could weaken the dollar and push gold higher. The key resistance level is around $4,675; a breakout above that level could pave the way for a rally towards $4,840.

Conversely, a hotter-than-forecast CPI reading that raises the likelihood of a US rate increase could strengthen the dollar materially, potentially pushing gold back towards technical support around $4,000.

Gold, November 2025 – present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

Economic & company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases, plus selected UK, US and other listed company results:

Monday 7 September

• Eurozone: Q2 employment change, Q2 gross domestic product (GDP), September Sentix investor confidence

• Results: Ashmore (FY), IQE (HY), Sigmaroc (HY), Standard Life (HY)

Tuesday 8 September

• Australia: September Westpac consumer confidence

• China: August trade balance

• Japan: July current account, Q2 GDP

• UK: August British Retail Consortium like-for-like retail sales

• Results: Braze (Q2), Casey’s General Stores (Q1), Computacenter (HY), Dunelm Group (FY), Funding Circle Holdings (HY), GameStop (Q2), Johnson Service Group (HY), ServiceTitan (Q2), STV Group (HY), United Natural Foods (Q4)

Wednesday 9 September

• China: August consumer price index (CPI), August producer price index (PPI)

• Results: Academy Sports and Outdoors (Q2), ASA International Group (HY), Chewy (Q2), Core & Main (Q2), Frontier Developments (FY), GYM Group (HY), Property Franchise Group (HY), SailPoint (Q2), Spire Healthcare Group (HY), Sunbelt Rentals Holdings (Q1)

Thursday 10 September

• Eurozone: European Central Bank interest-rate decision, monetary policy statement and press conference

• Germany: August CPI

• US: August existing home sales, August PPI, weekly initial jobless claims

• Results: Adobe (Q3), Copart (Q4), Genus (FY), Macy’s (Q2), Oracle (Q1)

Friday 11 September

• UK: July GDP, July industrial production, July manufacturing production

• US: August CPI, September Michigan consumer sentiment

• Results: Kroger (Q2), Petards Group (HY)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.