The Week Ahead: Central bank rate decisions, UK inflation, US retail sales
Welcome to Michael Kramer's pick of the key market events to look out for in the week beginning Monday 15 June.
Founder, Mott Capital Management
Although US markets will be closed on Friday 19 June in observance of Juneteenth, it will still be a busy week for traders. The focus is on a trio of major central bank decisions, with the Bank of Japan set to raise interest rates by a quarter-point to 1%, and the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England expected to hold. There are also updates on the UK consumer price index (CPI) and US retail sales.
Central bank interest rate decisions
Tuesday 16 June (Bank of Japan)
Wednesday 17 June (US Federal Reserve)
Thursday 18 June (Bank of England)
Markets are pricing in a roughly 90% chance that the Bank of Japan will lift the cost of borrowing to a 31-year high of 1%. Meanwhile, the Fed, led by new chair Kevin Warsh, and the Bank of England are expected to leave rates unchanged. In each case, traders will be listening closely to policymakers' comments on the outlook for monetary policy, particularly given the recent reacceleration in inflation.
Alongside its rate decision, the Fed will also release its Summary of Economic Projections, which could offer important clues about the future path of policy.
The impact of the BoJ and Fed meetings may be felt by USD/JPY, which has risen back towards ¥160 per dollar, close to the highs of 29 April. Even with markets pricing in a BoJ rate hike, it would probably take more than a 25-basis-point increase to persuade traders to bet on a strengthening yen. The market might also require hawkish guidance and clear signals that further rate hikes remain possible. At the same time, if the Fed strikes a more hawkish-than-expected tone, perhaps by removing any easing messaging from its policy statement, that could put additional pressure on the yen against the dollar.
If the pair breaks above ¥161, it could move towards ¥162, a level it last touched in July 2024. Unless the Japanese government intervenes in the foreign exchange market again, the dollar could move higher against the yen from there. Ultimately, it may take a more hawkish-than-expected BoJ and a more dovish-than-expected Fed to reverse USD/JPY's recent rise and allow the yen to strengthen against the dollar.
USD/JPY, March 2024 - present
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer
UK May CPI
Wednesday 17 June
Inflation in the UK had begun to ease in the first few months of the year, but that was before the Middle East war triggered a surge in oil prices. Amid mounting inflation pressures globally, it seems unlikely that UK consumer prices continued to trend lower in May. An uptick in the cost of living could have implications for interest rates and the UK's leading share index.
The FTSE 100 sits just below resistance at 10,400, a barrier that has formed since early April. A favourable CPI report could help lift the index through resistance, potentially allowing it to break out of a symmetrical triangle pattern and put it on a path back towards 10,700.
However, a failure to push through resistance could lead to a decline towards support near 10,180, and possibly lower levels around 9,870.
FTSE 100, January 2026 - present
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer
US May retail sales
Wednesday 17 June
Analysts estimate that US retail sales increased 0.5% month-on-month in May, matching the pace of growth in April. However, retail sales excluding autos are forecast to have eased from 0.7% in April to 0.5% in May. This could be an important signal. Real wage growth in the US has turned negative over the past two months amid a surge in inflation, and may now be affecting consumer spending.
A weaker US consumer could be bearish for the dollar. The pound, which has made gains against the dollar in the past week, is approaching a downward trendline. If GBP/USD breaks above that line, the pair could rise to around $1.347 and potentially $1.355.
GBP/USD, March 2026 - present
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer
Economic and company events calendar
Major scheduled data releases and UK- or US-listed company results include:
Monday 15 June
Eurozone: April industrial production
US: May industrial production
Results: Peel Hunt (FY)
Tuesday 16 June
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
China: May industrial production, May retail sales
Eurozone: June ZEW economic sentiment survey
Japan: Bank of Japan interest rate decision
Results: John Wiley & Sons (Q4), La-Z-Boy (Q4)
Wednesday 17 June
Eurozone: May CPI
Japan: May exports, imports and trade balance
New Zealand: Q1 GDP
UK: May CPI
US: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections, May retail sales
Results: AO World (FY), CarMax (Q1), Jabil (Q3)
Thursday 18 June
New Zealand: May exports, imports and trade balance
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank interest rate decision
UK: Bank of England interest rate decision, April average earnings, unemployment rate and employment change, May claimant count change
Results: Accenture (Q3), Kroger (Q1), Tesco (Q1)
Friday 19 June
Canada: April retail sales
Japan: May CPI
UK: May retail sales
US: markets closed for Juneteenth
Results: Whitbread (Q1)
The Week Ahead: US inflation, Oracle earnings, ECB rate decision
Welcome to Michael Kramer's pick of the key market events to look out for in the week beginning Monday 8 June.
ECB raises rates as Eurozone stagflation risk deepens
The ECB has delivered the 25-basis-point rate rise flagged in the Spanish source, but the move lands in an uncomfortable mix of weaker growth and higher inflation projections. With energy costs still driving the shock, the euro and European equities may remain sensitive to every hint on the next rate move.
US inflation above 4% puts the Fed and AI trade under pressure
The US inflation risk flagged in the Polish source has now materialised, with May CPI rising 4.2% year on year as energy costs bite. The result leaves Fed Chair Kevin Warsh facing an early credibility test, while higher yields and funding costs could challenge the AI-led Nasdaq trade.