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Silver’s rebound fades as downside risks grow

Silver is testing key support after failing near $71, while renewed dollar strength and weaker momentum point to growing downside risks.

Michael J Kramer

Founder, Mott Capital Management

02 Sept 2026, 14:30

Silver prices have fallen sharply, giving back much of their recent gains after failing to push through resistance near $71. Silver now finds itself close to a support region around $63 to $64. A break below that area could be a problem for the metal and may result in prices declining further, perhaps back towards the mid-$50s.

Silver recently broke an uptrend on the price chart on 31 August, with that trend having been established at the end of July. In addition, the relative strength index had also formed an uptrend, which has now been broken as well. The break in both price and momentum suggests that the bullish move seen in August may be fading, with the trend potentially shifting from bullish to bearish.

Silver price, July 2026 – present

Source: TradingView, 2 September 2026

Dollar strength has also contributed to silver’s recent weakness. Heading into the end of 2025, silver and the dollar were moving together, but that relationship shifted back to its more typical inverse pattern at the start of 2026. Continued dollar strength could therefore put additional pressure on silver.

Silver and US dollar index, December 2025 – present

Source: TradingView, 2 September 2026

The drivers of that dollar strength will be worth watching. A dollar rally accompanied by higher interest rates and rising real yields, rather than rising inflation expectations, could create a more challenging backdrop for silver.

Silver, interest rates and real yields, December 2025 – present

Source: TradingView, 2 September 2026

Silver faces a critical test

Silver has rallied sharply in August and is now approaching a key technical resistance area. Bollinger Bands, RSI momentum and Fibonacci retracement levels suggest the next move could hinge on whether silver can extend towards $69.50 and $72, or fall back below support near $62.

Silver may still be heading much lower

Silver has broken below key support around $58.50, reinforcing a bearish technical setup as momentum weakens and the US dollar remains an important headwind.

Silver's recent rally may not last for much longer

Silver has recovered within a rising channel, but the move still looks more like a retracement than the start of a durable new uptrend. If support around $76 gives way, the chart may confirm a bear flag and open the way to a much deeper pullback.