Gold loses critical support as real yields surge
Gold has broken below support near $4,250 as real yields and the US dollar move higher, raising the risk of a deeper decline towards $4,000 or even $3,650.
Founder, Mott Capital Management
Gold prices are falling, breaking through support around $4,250. This opens a path for gold to potentially fall towards $4,000. Gold has come under pressure as nominal interest rates rise and real yields move higher alongside them. The US dollar index has also continued to push higher and is showing bullish momentum. A stronger US dollar and higher rates are likely to remain major headwinds for gold if this trend continues.
Gold has had an inverse correlation with the US 10-year Treasury real yield, based on a 20-day rolling correlation of changes over a 120-day window. The correlation has been negative in every reading over the past six months and currently stands at -0.53, indicating that gold has been negatively affected by rising real yields.
Gold and US 10-year real yield, March 2026 – present
Source: TradingView, 28 September 2026
With gold under pressure from rising real yields and a strengthening US dollar, the metal risks falling to the next major support level at $4,000. This price has acted as a support area since mid-June. A loss of support could lead to a much sharper decline, perhaps back towards $3,650.
The RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is currently around 36, suggesting that gold still has room to fall before potentially consolidating.
If real yields reverse their recent gains or the US dollar shows signs of weakening, gold could benefit. However, support at $4,250 has now turned into resistance, with the next resistance level around $4,350, meaning that any move higher is likely to be bumpy.
