DAX set for cautious open after Nvidia beats expectations

Asian markets get a lift from Nvidia and Middle East signals

The DAX may start the session slightly lower after yesterday's gains, but the wider tone has been supported by two important overnight signals. Asian equities reacted positively to signs of possible de-escalation in the Middle East and to Nvidia's stronger-than-expected quarterly results.

Japan also had a local support factor, with a better trade balance helping the Nikkei. In South Korea, sentiment improved further after Samsung reached an agreement with its union, while semiconductor shares more broadly received another boost from Nvidia's update.

Lower oil prices ease one pressure point

The source notes that the US appears to have moved closer to a possible agreement with Iran, with Pakistan, acting as intermediary, expecting a deal to be reached soon. Several ships have also been able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without incident.

That matters for equity markets because oil prices have fallen back as the immediate supply-risk premium has eased. Lower crude prices do not remove the geopolitical risk, but they do reduce one of the clearest inflationary pressure points facing European stocks.

The DAX rally may pause after recent gains

After the recovery rally of recent days, the DAX may have already priced in a fair amount of optimism around a possible US-Iran deal. That leaves the index vulnerable to a more cautious open, even though the broader backdrop is not uniformly negative.

For now, the market looks more likely to consolidate than to extend the rebound aggressively. Traders may therefore watch whether the index can hold its recent improvement while still digesting Nvidia, oil prices and the Middle East headlines.

Macro data return to the foreground

The macro calendar becomes more important again today, with a run of purchasing managers' indices due from Europe and the US. US labour-market data and building starts are also on the agenda, giving investors several fresh checks on the growth backdrop.

The reporting season has effectively ended with Nvidia's results, so company earnings may offer less of a direct impulse over the coming weeks. From a technical perspective, the German source points to a possible DAX trading range between 24,450 and 24,800 points.