Brent and natural gas await key STEO and OMR reports
Brent and West Texas Intermediate are holding above their 200-day moving averages ahead of this week's key energy reports, while Henry Hub natural gas is rebounding from annual lows as TTF retreats from recent highs. The EIA's STEO and the IEA's OMR will put price forecasts, inventories and Middle East shipping risks back in focus.
Market Analyst
Brent and Henry Hub hold key technical levels
This week brings two important energy-market reports: the EIA publishes its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), while the IEA releases its Oil Market Report (OMR).
Brent and West Texas Intermediate are heading into those releases while holding above their 200-day simple moving averages. Henry Hub natural gas is rebounding from key support, while TTF natural gas has retreated from its annual-high area.
Brent futures, daily chart with stochastic
Source: TradingView, 10 August 2026
EIA STEO: Brent and Henry Hub forecasts in focus
The US Energy Information Administration will update its oil and natural-gas price forecasts for this year and next.
In the previous STEO, the EIA expected Brent to average $82 per barrel in 2026 and $65 per barrel in 2027, assuming a gradual recovery in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Futures markets are starting to diverge from those forecasts, pricing an average 2027 Brent price close to $75 per barrel, around $10 above the EIA's estimate.
For Henry Hub, the curve is showing the opposite signal. Against EIA forecasts of $3.64/MMBtu in 2026 and $3.49/MMBtu in 2027, futures are trading at a discount, pressured by record domestic production and elevated inventories that continue to cap prices.
The main bullish catalyst could come from LNG exports. The large price gap versus international TTF and JKM benchmarks supports arbitrage, and as new export capacity comes online, US gas exports could increase and gradually reduce the domestic supply surplus.
Henry Hub natural gas futures, daily chart with stochastic
Source: TradingView, 10 August 2026
IEA OMR: inventories return to centre stage
The International Energy Agency will publish its OMR, with investors likely to focus on its estimates for global crude inventories. OECD strategic reserves remain historically low, while commercial inventories also remain tight.
That shortage of buffers leaves the market with less room to absorb fresh supply disruptions if the crisis around the Middle East's main choke points persists. According to PortWatch, oil-tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains almost completely halted, while traffic through Bab el-Mandeb has fallen to just five or six tankers a day, well below the levels seen in recent weeks.
Brent oil falls to support after reaching overbought conditions
Brent crude has pulled back towards its 10-day exponential moving average after becoming overbought near the upper Bollinger Band, leaving short-term support in focus as Middle East headlines continue to shift.
Brent oil extends rebound after holding key support
Brent crude has rebounded sharply from support around $70.50 and moved into the mid-$80s as geopolitical risk returns to energy markets. Momentum indicators have improved, but the market now needs to hold above the former $82.50 resistance area to keep the bullish setup intact.
Brent oil enters oversold territory following technical breakdown
Brent crude has broken below the $93-$94 support zone and dropped towards $80 as Middle East escalation fears ease. Oversold signals could allow a short-term rebound, but former support near $94 may now become resistance and the double-top pattern still points to further downside risk.