The Week Ahead: US ISM services, Fed minutes, PepsiCo earnings

Published: Friday, 2 October 2026 at 12.30pm (UK)

It looks set to be a relatively quiet week for economic data and earnings before earnings season gathers pace the following week. Before that though, PepsiCo’s results will offer an early preview, while the ISM services reading for September should kickstart the week with a broader check-up on the health of the US economy.

Minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting will also be a focal point. Following the central bank’s rate increase, investors will be looking for clues about how broadly the committee supported the decision, and what policymakers’ comments reveal about where they see interest rates heading.

US ISM services

Monday 5 October

The ISM services index is expected to rise to 55.7 from 55.4. Analysts will also watch its prices paid component closely, particularly after the manufacturing survey’s prices paid index came in at 77.9 on 1 October, well above expectations of 72.3. That stronger-than-expected reading suggests pricing pressures remain elevated in the US economy, and could be reflected in September’s inflation reports, due later this month.

EUR/USD has been particularly sensitive to changes in the US inflation outlook, which shape expectations for the relative paths of European Central Bank and Federal Reserve policy. The euro/dollar pair has recently broken below support around $1.1350. A sustained break could open the door to a further decline towards $1.1066.

Should the services survey reinforce the manufacturing report’s indication of mounting US pricing pressures, expectations for tighter Fed policy could weigh further on the euro. A break below $1.1066 could then lead to a further decline towards support near $1.075.