Published: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 12.30pm (UK)
The coming week could be one of the year’s most consequential, given recent market positioning, rising interest rates, and currency market volatility. Interest-rate announcements from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, together with the latest UK inflation figures, could help determine whether traders and investors unwind recent positions or add to them.
UK CPI
Wednesday 16 September
UK headline and core CPI inflation appear to be bottoming out, with both annual rates edging higher last month. Analysts expect headline inflation to rise further, from 2.9% to 3% year-on-year. Against this backdrop, markets are pricing in a rate hike from the Bank of England in November – which would take the UK base rate from 3.75% to 4% – with a further increase to 4.25% possible in December.
The lingering question is whether the CPI report could bring those expectations forward to the 17 September meeting. At this point, that seems unlikely unless the data delivers a significant surprise. Meanwhile, a cooler reading may reduce tightening expectations, potentially weighing on GBP/USD, which has recently stabilised around $1.35.
With the Fed meeting scheduled for Wednesday evening (UK time), a break below $1.348 could see the pound fall towards $1.328, the next major support area. If support holds, GBP/USD could rise towards $1.365, with the potential to break higher.
