The Week Ahead: US PCE, Dell earnings, Germany CPI

Published: Friday, 22 May 2026 at 12:00 (UK)

After a three-day weekend in the UK and the US, markets will return to action on Tuesday 26 May. Although the economic calendar looks relatively light, inflation will remain a focal point thanks to the release on Thursday of the April reading of the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of rising prices. Friday brings key inflation updates from Japan, Germany and France. In earnings news, laptop makers Dell and HP, as well as retailers Costco and Best Buy, are among the big names set to report quarterly results. Dell is likely to attract attention given its exposure to AI-related infrastructure demand.

US April PCE price index

Thursday 28 May
Analysts estimate that the closely watched 'core' PCE print, which highlights underlying inflation trends by excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3% in the year to April, up from 3.2% in March and 3% in February.

The acceleration in this crucial measure of inflation may make it more likely that the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates higher for longer, with potential implications for US stock indices.

The Nasdaq 100 may be particularly sensitive to the inflation data after a strong rally that has pushed the index more than 25% higher since the end of March to exceed 29,350 points. Recently the upward move has levelled off somewhat. The index reached overbought conditions last week, as measured by the move above the upper Bollinger Band (the thin red line on the chart below) and a relative strength index (RSI) reading of more than 70.

Support is currently around 28,550. A dip below that level could increase the risk of a pullback towards lower support levels near 26,700. That said, if the inflation figures come in softer than expected, the Nasdaq's rally could continue, though gains may be limited by resistance near the upper Bollinger Band around 30,160.

US NDAQ 100, November 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Dell Q1 earnings

Thursday 28 May
Dell is expected to report that first-quarter earnings grew 89.5% year-on-year to $2.94 a share, with revenue rising 51.6% over the same period to $35.4bn, according to analysts. However, the technology company's gross margin is expected to contract to 17.9%, down from 21.6% a year earlier.

As for the all-important forward guidance, analysts are forecasting Q2 earnings growth of 28.2% to $2.97 a share, with revenue expected to increase 17.3% to $34.9bn. Gross margin is projected to remain under pressure at around 17.9%.

The options market implies that the Dell share price – which has soared 97.8% this year to close at $252.80 on Thursday – could move 11% in either direction following the Q1 results.

Options positioning appears broadly bullish, although resistance is around $260, with support closer to $230. This may limit downside risk unless results or guidance disappoint significantly.

The technical picture is broadly consistent with the options outlook. Since early May, the shares have found support near $230 on a few occasions, while resistance remains near $260. A break below $230 could weaken the stock's near-term prospects and might trigger a decline towards the next support level near $200. Conversely, stronger-than-expected results could support a breakout towards $290.

Dell share price, December 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Germany May CPI

Friday 29 May
Germany's annual inflation rate is expected to have eased to 2.8% in May, down from 2.9% in April, according to analysts. The monthly rate is forecast to come in at 0.3%, down from 0.6%.

The consumer price index report will be closely watched ahead of the European Central Bank's interest rate decision on 11 June. Markets are currently pricing in an 88% chance of a rate hike at that meeting, a probability that could be strengthened by a strong inflation reading from Europe's largest economy. On the other hand, a weak CPI report may reduce pressure on the ECB to act immediately.

Either way, Germany's CPI figures could influence the near-term direction of the euro, which has weakened recently against the US dollar and is now trading near support around $1.16. If EUR/USD breaks below $1.16, it could slide all the way down towards $1.1450. Momentum indicators, such as the RSI, have trended lower in recent sessions, suggesting that the pair may remain vulnerable to further downside pressures in the near term.

EUR/USD, March 2025 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic and company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases and UK and US company results include:

Monday 25 May
- Switzerland: Q1 employment level
- UK, US: Public holiday (markets closed)
Results: Joyy (Q1)

Tuesday 26 May
- US: March housing price index, May consumer confidence index
Results: AutoZone (Q3), Elbit Systems (Q1), Zscaler (Q3)

Wednesday 27 May
- Australia: April consumer price index (CPI)
- New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision
- US: ADP four-week average employment change
Results: Hollywood Bowl (HY), HP (Q2), Marvell Technology (Q1), PDD (Q1), Pets at Home (FY), Salesforce (Q1), Snowflake (Q1), Synopsys (Q2)

Thursday 28 May
- Eurozone: May business climate and consumer confidence indices
- New Zealand: Yearly budget
- US: Q1 flash gross domestic product (GDP), April personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, weekly initial jobless claims
Results: Autodesk (Q1), Best Buy (Q1), Burlington Stores (Q1), Costco (Q3), Dell (Q1), Dollar Tree (Q1), Gap (Q1), MongoDB (Q1), NetApp (Q4), SSE (FY)

Friday 29 May
- Canada: Q1 GDP
- France: May flash CPI
- Germany: April unemployment rate, May flash CPI
- Japan: May Tokyo CPI
Results: Genesco (Q1)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.