The Week Ahead: UK inflation, US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan

Published: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 12.30pm (UK)

The coming week could be one of the year’s most consequential, given recent market positioning, rising interest rates, and currency market volatility. Interest-rate announcements from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, together with the latest UK inflation figures, could help determine whether traders and investors unwind recent positions or add to them.

UK CPI

Wednesday 16 September

UK headline and core CPI inflation appear to be bottoming out, with both annual rates edging higher last month. Analysts expect headline inflation to rise further, from 2.9% to 3% year-on-year. Against this backdrop, markets are pricing in a rate hike from the Bank of England in November – which would take the UK base rate from 3.75% to 4% – with a further increase to 4.25% possible in December.

The lingering question is whether the CPI report could bring those expectations forward to the 17 September meeting. At this point, that seems unlikely unless the data delivers a significant surprise. Meanwhile, a cooler reading may reduce tightening expectations, potentially weighing on GBP/USD, which has recently stabilised around $1.35.

With the Fed meeting scheduled for Wednesday evening (UK time), a break below $1.348 could see the pound fall towards $1.328, the next major support area. If support holds, GBP/USD could rise towards $1.365, with the potential to break higher.

GBP/USD, June 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

US Federal Reserve meeting

Wednesday 16 September

Markets do not expect the Fed to raise interest rates, although recent inflation data has increased the likelihood of a rise in October. However, with the October meeting falling just days before the US midterm elections, December appears more likely for any potential increase.

Still, investors will listen closely to the Fed’s monetary policy guidance at the press conference. The meeting is also scheduled to include the summary of economic projections, also known as ‘the dot plot’. It remains unclear whether any changes to that format are planned, though the Fed could announce them at the meeting.

Assuming nothing changes in this meeting, a Fed that signals the possibility of tightening monetary policy and raising the US interest rates could weigh on gold, which recently rose toward $4,685, before hitting resistance and retreating to around $4,350. A break below support at $4,300 following a more hawkish Fed message may send gold prices towards $4,000. In turn, a breach of that level could potentially expose a further decline towards $3,700. However, if gold holds the $4,350 area and Fed chair Kevin Warsh delivers a more dovish outlook at the FOMC press conference, prices could retest the highs around $4,685.

Gold - Cash, November 2025 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Bank of Japan meeting

Friday 18 September

Markets are pricing in roughly a 75% chance of a Bank of Japan rate rise, with another increase expected around December or January 2027. This is increasingly important for global markets, because the yen has already strengthened significantly against several major currencies.

AUD/JPY stands out as a pair approaching a critical support zone between ¥110 and ¥111. A break below this zone, following potential hawkish commentary from the BoJ, could push the pair towards ¥107.50. The bigger risk is that rising Japanese interest rates increase the cost of borrowing yen, which may encourage an unwinding of the global carry trade and put AUD/JPY under more sustained pressure. This could mark a broader regime shift towards sustained yen strength across multiple currency pairs.

However, if the Bank of Japan does not deliver the expected rate rise, or issues more dovish guidance, AUD/JPY could recover toward ¥114, the upper end of its trading range since April 2026.

AUD/JPY, November 2025 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic & company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases, plus selected UK, US and other listed company results:

Monday 14 September

• Canada: August consumer price index (CPI)

• Results: Big Technologies (HY), GlobalData (HY), Kestra Medical Technologies (Q1), MP Evans Group (HY)

Tuesday 15 September

• China: August industrial production, retail sales

• UK: July ILO unemployment rate, average earnings

• US: ADP employment change, September Empire State manufacturing index

• Results: Kier Group (FY), Trip.com (Q2), Trustpilot (HY)

Wednesday 16 September

• Eurozone: July industrial production

• Japan: August exports, imports

• UK: August CPI, producer price index (PPI), retail price index

• US: August retail sales, Federal Reserve interest-rate decision, monetary policy statement, FOMC press conference

• Results: Barratt Redrow (FY), Dollarama (Q2), Supermarket Income REIT (FY)

Thursday 17 September

• Eurozone: August CPI

• UK: Bank of England interest-rate decision, minutes, monetary policy summary

• US: August building permits, housing starts, pending home sales, September Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey

• Results: Galliford Try (FY), Lennar (Q3), Next (HY)

Friday 18 September

• Japan: August CPI, Bank of Japan interest-rate decision, monetary policy statement, press conference

• UK: August retail sales

• US: August industrial production

• Results: No major announcements

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.