The Week Ahead: ISM data, Broadcom, US jobs
Welcome to Michael Kramer’s pick of the key market events to look out for in the week beginning Monday 2 March.
Founder, Mott Capital Management
Published: Friday, 27 February 2026 at 12:10 (UK)
Welcome to Michael Kramer’s pick of the key market events to look out for in the week beginning Monday 2 March. US economic data will come thick and fast, with the ISM manufacturing and services reports, the ADP private payrolls release and the US non-farm payrolls report all scheduled.
Alongside this, artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to remain central to traders’ focus, with chipmaker Broadcom set to report its first-quarter results on Wednesday. Following the downbeat market reaction to Nvidia’s Q4 results, there may be added pressure on Broadcom to present a clearer and more convincing outlook for investors.
US February ISM data
Monday 2 March (manufacturing PMI)
Wednesday 4 March (services PMI)
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reports will provide a snapshot of how the US manufacturing and services sectors performed in February. The manufacturing report is expected to show that the sector remained in expansion territory with a reading of 52.3, albeit down slightly from 52.6 in January. Meanwhile, activity in the services sector is thought to have edged up, with an expected reading of 54, versus 53.8 in January.
These reports – widely regarded as a barometer of the health of the US economy – are likely to influence whether the dollar’s recent rebound can continue. In particular, EUR/USD may be sensitive to the data. The pair is currently trading near support at $1.18 per euro, which aligns with the 50-day moving average. A break below this level, perhaps driven by stronger-than-expected ISM readings (which tend to be bullish for the dollar), could send the pair down towards $1.158, and potentially $1.147. In contrast, weak readings might allow EUR/USD to test resistance near $1.19.
EUR/USD, May 2025 - present
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer
Broadcom Q1 earnings
Wednesday 4 March
The Nasdaq-listed semiconductor company is expected to report that its Q1 earnings grew 26.3% to $2.02 a share as revenue surged 28.3% to $19.1bn, based on analyst estimates. Gross margin is forecast to come in at 76.8%. Guidance will be a key area of focus. Analysts are forecasting Q2 revenue growth of 37.1% to $20.6bn, though gross margins are expected to contract sequentially to 76.4%. The options market implies that the stock – down 7.5% this year at $321.70, as at Thursday’s close – may move 8.3% in either direction following the Q1 results.
Implied volatility for options expiring on 6 March is above 80% and may continue rising ahead of Wednesday’s earnings announcement. Positioning appears more mixed than for comparable recent earnings announcements. Based on current pricing and positioning, the stock may have upside potential, with strong resistance around $350, particularly if traders reduce their hedges and option premiums decline.
From a technical analysis perspective, resistance near $350 has been in place since January. To the downside, support sits at around $300. A sustained move below $300 could weaken the near-term outlook, potentially exposing the shares to further downside towards $285.
Broadcom share price, June 2025 - present
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer
US February jobs report
Friday 6 March
Economists estimate that the US economy added 60,000 jobs in February, down from 130,000 in January. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.3%, while growth in average hourly earnings is expected to ease to 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.4%.
This will be a closely watched release. Although another jobs report is due before the next Federal Reserve meeting (17-18 March), this update will help traders assess whether US labour market conditions are strengthening. If the payrolls print comfortably beats expectations, as the January figure did, the positive economic news could dampen rate-cut expectations, potentially weighing on sentiment towards the major US stock indices.
The Nasdaq 100 has essentially moved sideways since October and appears to be waiting for a fresh catalyst. A robust jobs report, while positive for workers and the overall economy, may reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March, removing a potential boost for equities. The tech-heavy index has struggled to sustain a move above 25,800, which remains a key resistance level.
If traders continue to push back their rate-cut expectations, downside risks may build. Initial support for the Nasdaq 100 is around 24,400. A decisive break below this level could lead to a decline back towards the November lows around 23,850.
US 100, 17 October 2025 - present
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer
Economic and company events calendar
Major upcoming economic announcements and scheduled US and UK company reports include:
Monday 2 March
• China: February RatingDog manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI)
• Germany: January retail sales
• US: February Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI
• Results: AST SpaceMobile (Q4), Bunzl (FY), EchoStar (Q4), MongoDB (Q4), Oxford Nanopore Technologies (FY), RHI Magnesita (FY), Senior (FY), Smith & Nephew (FY)
Tuesday 3 March
• Australia: February PMI data
• Eurozone: February flash harmonised consumer price index (CPI)
• Results: Aberdeen (FY), AutoZone (Q2), Best Buy (Q4), CrowdStrike (Q4), Fresnillo (FY), Greggs (FY), Inchcape (FY), International Workplace (FY), Keller (HY), Kier (HY), On (Q4), Ross Stores (Q4)
Wednesday 4 March
• Australia: Q4 gross domestic product (GDP)
• China: February RatingDog services PMI, February National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) manufacturing and services PMI
• Eurozone: January unemployment rate, January producer price index (PPI), February composite PMI
• Switzerland: February CPI
• US: February ADP employment change, February ISM services PMI
• Results: Beazley (FY), Broadcom (Q1), Brown-Forman (Q3), Metro Bank (FY), Veeva Systems (Q4), Vistry (FY), Weir (FY)
Thursday 5 March
• Australia: January exports, imports and trade balance
• Eurozone: January retail sales
• US: Weekly initial jobless claims
• Results: Admiral (FY), Aviva (FY), Ciena (Q1), Costco Wholesale (Q2), Entain (FY), Gap (Q4), Harbour Energy (FY), ITV (FY), Kroger (Q4), Marvell Technology (Q4), Reckitt Benckiser (FY), Rentokil Initial (FY), Serco (FY), Taylor Wimpey (FY), Victoria’s Secret (Q4)
Friday 6 March
• Eurozone: Q4 GDP
• Germany: January factory orders
• US: February jobs report, including non-farm payrolls
• Results: IMI (FY)
Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.
The USD/JPY may be heading much higher
USD/JPY has pushed higher after new Bank of Japan appointments raised expectations of more reflationary policy and a weaker yen. The move brings key resistance levels and the risk of government intervention back into focus.
