The Week Ahead: Central bank rate decisions, US PCE, Meta earnings

Published: Friday, 24 July 2026 at 12.30pm (UK)

The coming week may prove one of the busiest of the year, with mega-cap earnings from Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. In addition, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), US Federal Reserve, and Bank of England (BoE) announce interest rate decisions. Investors will also receive the latest US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation report for June, the inflation gauge the Fed follows most closely.

Central bank rate decisions

Wednesday 29 July

Central banks are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their respective meetings. However, rate-hike expectations have risen. The Fed is now expected to raise rates up to two times between now and early next year, while the BoJ is still expected to continue its gradual tightening cycle, with one or two additional rate hikes anticipated over the same period. By contrast, the BoE is expected to remain on hold for longer, although markets still see the possibility of a rate hike towards the end of the year.

Investors will be listening closely for any clues about the timing of future rate hikes, particularly whether policymakers suggest a more hawkish path than markets have already priced in.

The biggest risk is that the Fed comes across as more hawkish than markets expect, while the BoJ strikes a more dovish tone. Should this scenario transpire, the Japanese yen could face further weakness if the market concludes that the BoJ is falling further behind the curve.

Technically, USD/JPY remains positioned to extend its advance. If the pair breaks decisively above the $165 level, the next major area of resistance, based on consolidation, is around $178 – an FX rate not seen since early 1986.

USD/JPY, 1978 – present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

Meta Q2 earnings

Wednesday 29 July

Meta is expected to report second-quarter earnings growth of 1.3% year-on-year, with earnings of $7.23 a share, while revenue is projected to increase by 26.6% to $60.2bn. Capital expenditures are expected to total $33.7bn, more than double last year's $16.5bn.

For Q3, analysts estimate earnings a share could decline 2.6% to $7.06 year-on-year, even though revenue is expected to grow 23.2% to $63.1bn. Capital expenditure is projected to continue climbing, rising to $40.5bn – more than double the $18.8bn reported a year earlier. The options market is pricing in a move of about 8% following the results.

Options positioning in Meta remains heavily bullish, suggesting that once the Q2 results have been published, and implied volatility begins to decline, the hedging flows that have supported the shares could unwind, creating downside pressure. Meanwhile, option gamma positioning indicates resistance around $750 and support near $550, leaving the stock in a broad trading range.

Technically, Meta has become increasingly volatile, largely trading sideways since October 2025. The stock has faced strong resistance around $680, while finding support between $525 and $540 on a few occasions. More recently, however, momentum has begun to fade, with the relative strength index (RSI) turning lower and forming a series of lower highs.

If Meta declines after its earnings report, the shares could move down to fill the gap around $560. On the upside, if the company surprises investors with stronger-than-expected results, the first significant area of resistance appears to be around $675.

Meta earnings, June 2025 – present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

US June PCE

Thursday 30 July

The June US PCE inflation report is expected to show headline PCE falling by 0.1% month on month, compared with the 0.4% increase recorded in May. On an annual basis, headline PCE is expected to ease to 3.6% from 4.1%.

Core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.1% in June, compared with a 0.3% increase in May. On an annual basis, core PCE is forecast to ease to 3.3% from 3.4%.

The greatest risk from the PCE report may be a core reading that exceeds the market's expectation of a 0.1% monthly increase. Such an outcome may suggest that underlying inflation remains stronger and more persistent than investors anticipate.

That could have significant implications for assets such as gold, as it could strengthen the dollar and push both nominal and real interest rates higher, as markets price in the possibility of further action from the US central bank.

Gold has been in a steep downtrend since peaking in March 2026 and is now testing a key support area between $4,000 and $4,050. A decisive break below that range could potentially start a process that sends gold prices down to $3,400 over the coming months.

Gold, July 2024 – present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

Economic & company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases, plus selected UK, US and other listed company results:

Monday 27 July

• Germany: July Ifo business climate survey, Bundesbank monthly report

• US: June durable goods orders

• Results: AstraZeneca (Q2), Brown & Brown (Q2), Cadence Design Systems (Q2), Nucor (Q2), Principal Financial Group (Q2), Welltower (Q2)

Tuesday 28 July

• US: July consumer confidence, June housing price index

• Results: American Tower (Q2), Barclays (HY), Boeing (Q2), Coca-Cola (Q2), Croda (HY), GSK (Q2), Rio Tinto (HY), Unilever (HY), United Parcel Service (Q2), Visa (Q3)

Wednesday 29 July

• Australia: June consumer price index (CPI)

• US: Federal Reserve interest rate decision

• Results: Aston Martin Lagonda (HY), Arm (Q1), Equinix (Q2), Greggs (HY), Meta (Q2), Microsoft (Q4), Procter & Gamble (Q4), Qualcomm (Q3), Reckitt Benckiser (HY), Standard Chartered (HY), St James’s Place (HY), Weir (HY)

Thursday 30 July

• Eurozone: Q2 preliminary gross domestic product (GDP)

• UK: Bank of England interest rate decision

• US: Q2 preliminary GDP, June personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, weekly initial jobless claims

• Results: Amazon (Q2), Apple (Q3), Anglo American (Q1), BAE Systems (HY), British American Tobacco (HY), Intercontinental Exchange (Q2), KKR (Q2), Lloyds Banking Group (HY), London Stock Exchange Group (HY), Mastercard (Q2), Rolls-Royce (HY)

Friday 31 July

• Canada: May GDP

• China: July purchasing managers’ indices

• Eurozone: July preliminary CPI

• Germany: June unemployment rate

• Japan: Bank of Japan interest rate decision, July Tokyo CPI

• US: Q2 employment cost index, July Michigan consumer sentiment index

• Results: Exxon Mobil (Q2), IMI (HY), International Consolidated Airlines Group (HY), Intertek (HY), NatWest (HY)