Results preview: can Nvidia monetise record capex, and is AI disrupting Salesforce?

Nvidia and Salesforce report on Wednesday after the US market close. Nvidia’s size and index weighting mean its results have systemic market relevance, while Salesforce faces mounting scrutiny over whether generative artificial intelligence (AI) is weakening the software-as-a-service (SaaS) model.

Market context

Nvidia is currently the world’s largest listed company, with a market capitalisation of approximately $4.66tn. It accounts for around 13.95% of the Nasdaq 100 and 7.5% of the S&P 500. Its dominance in data centre chips gives its earnings comparable market sensitivity to major US macroeconomic releases such as inflation or employment data.

Salesforce, by contrast, is under pressure. Investors are questioning whether AI-driven automation could erode the traditional licence-per-user SaaS model. The concern is that autonomous AI agents may automate sales and customer service functions, reducing reliance on established platforms or enabling firms to develop lower-cost in-house solutions.

Nvidia – high expectations against a backdrop of record investment

Estimates for Nvidia have improved as hyperscalers accelerate capital expenditure. Projected 2026 capex stands at approximately:

• Amazon – $200bn

• Alphabet – $180bn

• Microsoft – $140bn

• Meta – $125bn

This investment cycle underpins strong consensus forecasts. Earnings per share are expected at $1.53, up 72% year-on-year, while revenue is projected at $66.11bn, up 68%.

Analyst consensus remains firmly positive, with a strong buy rating and an average target price of $260.58.

Valuation metrics have moderated relative to recent peaks. The price-to-earnings ratio stands at approximately 47.41 times, while the price to fair value ratio is 0.88 times, towards the lower end of the past decade’s range.

Despite constructive fundamentals, the share price has remained in a relatively narrow range, with declining volatility and trading volumes. Markets appear to be awaiting confirmation that current expectations can be delivered. Technical support lies in the $169.55 to $164.07 zone, near the 52-week average. A break below this area could follow weaker-than-expected results or cautious forward guidance. Consensus is already modelling next-quarter revenue of $72.82bn.

Nvidia on a weekly chart with volume and Average True Range percentage (ATR%), sourced from TradingView as at 24/02/26.

Salesforce – disruption risk of valuation opportunity?

For Salesforce, the central question is whether AI represents incremental enhancement or structural disruption.

The share price has fallen by roughly $100 from its annual high, forming a head-and-shoulders pattern. Volatility has increased, although without a marked rise in trading volume. From a technical perspective, clear support levels do not emerge until the annual low range between $126.34 and $113.60.

However, valuation metrics suggest a more balanced interpretation. The average analyst target price stands at $305.09, and the price to fair value ratio is 0.60 times.

These figures imply two possible readings. Either the market has materially undervalued the stock, or investors are reassessing the durability of Salesforce’s competitive moat considering AI-driven change.

This week’s results should provide greater clarity on revenue resilience, the commercial traction of AI-related products, and whether concerns around the SaaS model are justified.

Salesforce on a weekly chart with volume and Average True Range percentage (ATR%), sourced from TradingView as at 24/02/26.