EUR/USD may weaken further as key support breaks

A break below 1.166 is putting EUR/USD under fresh pressure

EUR/USD has been weakening in recent sessions and has now slipped below support around 1.166, a level that may prove important if sellers can keep the pair below it. From a technical perspective, that move raises the risk that a broader double-top pattern is beginning to confirm.

If the breakdown holds, the move may signal that the pair has shifted into a more vulnerable phase after failing to sustain its earlier gains. The key question now is whether buyers can recover the neckline quickly or whether the loss of support becomes the start of a deeper slide.

Momentum is softer, but not yet stretched enough to rule out more downside

EUR/USD is already testing its lower Bollinger Band, which may offer some temporary support in the near term. However, that support may not be enough on its own to stabilise the pair because Bollinger Bands reset constantly as volatility changes, and the broader momentum picture still looks fragile.

The Relative Strength Index is around 44, which suggests EUR/USD is not yet technically oversold. That leaves room for another leg lower if the double-top breakdown continues to gain traction. On the source analysis, a sustained move below the neckline would open the way towards the 1.151 area, measured from the closing high on 15 April down to the break zone around 1.166.

A recovery back above the neckline would weaken the bearish case

The bearish setup is not fully settled yet. If EUR/USD can regain the 1.166 area and hold back above that neckline, the current move may still turn into a false break rather than a decisive reversal.

In that scenario, the pair may recover part of its recent losses and start working back towards resistance near 1.177, which would effectively unwind the decline seen over the past few sessions. For now, though, the technical balance remains tilted to the downside unless support is reclaimed quickly.