DAX lacks direction as the BoJ flags inflation risks

The DAX is still waiting for a convincing catalyst

The DAX continues to lack momentum in either direction and looks set to begin the session close to its previous closing level. Investors are still focused on the Iran backdrop, but this week is also giving them a fresh set of distractions through central-bank meetings and the peak of the first-quarter earnings season.

The BoJ has added another inflation warning to the mix

The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting, but it also signalled that it is watching inflation dynamics closely. That was enough to trigger an initial round of profit-taking and left the Nikkei weaker by the close. A similar pattern could emerge around the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank if policymakers continue to sound cautious while offering little certainty on the inflation path.

Oil prices and earnings are now shaping the short-term mood

Oil prices are still moving higher, which is adding to the inflation debate and keeping investors alert to the risks around margins and rates. At the same time, the earnings season is approaching its high point and could become the main source of short-term sector rotation in both the US and Europe.

This is also a shortened trading week in many markets because of Friday's holiday, which tends to encourage smaller positioning and a more defensive tone ahead of the long weekend.

The DAX may stay range-bound while traders wait

Today's lighter data calendar includes US consumer confidence from the Conference Board, which could provide another read on the resilience of the American consumer. On the corporate side, companies such as Airbus, Starbucks and T-Mobile US are also due to report.

From a technical perspective, the source view suggests the DAX may trade in a range between 23,950 and 24,250 points for now. That leaves the market in a waiting pattern, with central banks, oil and earnings all competing to become the next real driver.