Overnight we’ve seen the US dollar try and make a fresh move lower which appears to have been rebuffed for now.
The failure to crack $90 on the US dollar index could prompt a short squeeze, which in turn could well prompt a top in the recent rebound in commodity prices.
Source: Bloomberg
This rebound, if sustained could also translate into a short term top for the advance that we’ve seen in commodity prices over the last nine months. A move back above $91.00 on the US dollar index could be the first indication of a possible short squeeze on the short US dollar trade.
Even if the US dollar doesn’t rally strongly there is some evidence given the sharp drop in commodity prices in the last 24 hours that crude oil prices might be a particular area where we may be nearing a short term top. The recent rise in US rig counts along with an expectation that US oil production could well exceed 10m barrels a day in the coming months is one area that could see supply continue to outpace demand.
This may help explain why Brent prices have chopped and changed around the $70 a barrel area over the last few days.
Source: CMC Markets
We can see how this has played out in the chart above when we got a doji star which didn’t get confirmed. Yesterday we saw a sharp bearish reversal after making a new three year high, but thus far we’ve held above the $68.80 level. We need to see a concerted break below this level to increase confidence that a short term top might be in and prompt a little run lower towards $65 a barrel.
The corresponding support level on US WTI crude prices sits at $63 a barrel.
Another factor that could limit the upside for commodity prices is that the Reuters CRB commodity index has continuously struggled to overcome the $196 area which has constrained commodity prices since the June 2015.
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Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
