US CPI (Wednesday 1:30pm): 2.4% could be a floor
On Wednesday at 1:30pm, the February 2026 US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. Consensus forecasts expect inflation to match January’s levels, with headline CPI at 2.4% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.5%.
Although the disinflation trend has been positive in recent months, the recent rise in oil prices could reverse that progress. As a rule of thumb, a $10 increase in crude oil prices tends to raise CPI by around 0.2%.
PCE and CPI rising as rate cuts are delayed
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s real-time inflation model, which incorporates daily petrol and crude oil prices, suggests CPI could rise to around 2.6% year-on-year in March.
Similarly, the model projects that the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE), a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve (Fed), could increase by 0.2% to reach 2.8% year-on-year. The PCE data will be published on Friday at 1:30pm.
Higher inflation estimates have already affected Fed Funds futures markets. Traders now expect two additional rate cuts during this easing cycle, compared with three previously anticipated, and the timing of the next cut has shifted from June to July.
