Michael J Kramer
Founder, Mott Capital Management
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered a flight to safety into the US dollar, pushing EUR/USD below a key support level at 1.176. The breach of support suggests EUR/USD could head lower towards the next support area at 1.158, which may only be the beginning.
Source: TradingView, 2 March 2026
The one caveat is that EUR/USD is now testing the lower Bollinger band, which could provide some support. However, the band itself is trending lower at present, so while it may offer near-term support, it is more likely to act as a level from which EUR/USD could stage a temporary bounce rather than signal a sustained reversal.
At this point, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains too high at 39.50 to suggest that EUR/USD is oversold. It would need to fall below 30 for oversold conditions to be indicated.
Source: TradingView, 2 March 2026
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