Business surveys point to faster growth
The first round of September business surveys, including ZEW, flash PMIs and the Ifo survey, delivered positive surprises. Instead of the deterioration many investors had expected due to the energy shock and high interest-rate environment, the indicators continued the upward trend seen in recent months and reached fresh highs.
The biggest surprise came from the flash PMI releases, which pointed to an acceleration in activity. The Eurozone composite PMI rose to 53.1, its strongest expansion in three and a half years and consistent with quarterly GDP growth of around 0.4%. In the US, the composite PMI climbed to 58.4, a 62-month high and a level consistent with annualised GDP growth of around 5%.
Yields break key levels as the US dollar gains momentum
Markets have responded by pushing bond yields higher, with long-dated yields across major economies moving through important levels. US 10-year Treasury yields have risen above 5.00%, German Bund yields have climbed above 3.50%, and Japanese 10-year government bond yields have moved above 3.00%.
At the same time, the relative strength of the US economy continues to support the dollar through wider interest-rate differentials. Fed funds futures are now starting to price in four additional 25-basis-point rate hikes, taking interest rates towards 5.00% by July 2027. The dollar has extended the upward move that began after the latest FOMC meeting.
Major economy bond yields, 24 September 2026
Source: TradingView, 24 September 2026
Gold, silver, bitcoin and ethereum come under pressure
The combination of higher rates, stronger growth and a firmer US dollar is once again putting pressure on the so-called debasement trade, which is based on demand for scarce or hard assets as protection against the erosion of purchasing power in fiat currencies.
Gold and silver are now approaching important support levels around their September lows. Bitcoin and ethereum, which had shown greater relative strength, are also pulling back towards former resistance levels that may now act as support. Those levels sit around $82,515 for bitcoin and $2,673 for ethereum.
Gold and the US Dollar Index daily, September 2026
Source: TradingView, 24 September 2026
Debasement trade faces its next macro test
From a technical perspective, doubts would increase if gold and silver break below their September lows while bitcoin and ethereum close the week near Monday’s opening levels. That would leave a possible weekly reversal pattern, with a pronounced upper shadow following the attempted breakout.
The fundamental confirmation will now depend on upcoming data. The next sessions include several releases that could determine whether the strength shown in the US flash PMIs has staying power or proves to be a one-off.
The key labour market releases will be JOLTS, ADP and non-farm payrolls. Investors will also watch the ISM manufacturing survey on Thursday 1 October and the ISM services survey on Monday 5 October. If these indicators confirm continued economic strength, yields and the US dollar could keep pressure on hard assets. If they disappoint, the recent move may lose one of its main catalysts.
Bitcoin and ethereum daily, September 2026
Source: TradingView, 24 September 2026
