US jobs data take centre stage this week
The next few sessions bring the main US labour-market releases: ADP on Wednesday 5 August at 13:15, Challenger job-cut data on Thursday 6 August at 10:30 and the official non-farm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday 7 August at 13:30, all London time.
Consensus expects ADP to show 70,000 new jobs in July, while NFP is expected to show 80,000. The Trading Economics model, meanwhile, estimates that Challenger layoffs could come in around 59,000.
US labour data: S&P 500, Challenger layoffs and unemployment
Source: TradingView, 4 August 2026
Base case: low hiring, low firing
If the forecasts are met, the US labour market would return to a low hire-low fire profile. The economy would be creating fewer than 100,000 jobs, but job destruction would also remain clearly contained.
For now, artificial intelligence does not appear to be translating into widespread job losses. Companies are still mainly using it to improve productivity, while the unemployment rate remains around 4.2%, a level that is still broadly compatible with full employment.
If that scenario is confirmed, the moderation in hiring after three consecutive months of job creation above 100,000 should not revive fears of a more restrictive Federal Reserve or trigger a fresh tightening of market conditions.
