Market backdrop and upcoming data
Major US equity indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, are testing key support levels ahead of several important labour market releases. These include the ADP payroll report, and the Challenger layoffs report mid-week, followed by official non-farm payroll (NFP) data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at the end of the week.
Each data set measures different aspects of employment conditions, and markets tend to react differently depending on the perceived reliability and implications of the figures.
ADP data and the “low-hire, low-fire” environment
ADP payroll data, derived from payroll processing covering around 26 million employees or roughly 20% of the US private sector, has become a closely watched indicator. Over the past 12 months, ADP has shown average monthly job creation of approximately 35,000 roles. That pace reflects a “low-hire, low-fire” environment in which companies are cautious about adding staff but are equally reluctant to implement large-scale redundancies.
Consensus expectations for the next ADP release point to job growth of around 50,000, suggesting continued moderation rather than a sharp slowdown.
