The DAX is expected to start the new trading week at around 25,200 points. Investors had plenty of difficult developments to digest last week, and the coming days are unlikely to be any easier. Persistently high energy prices, growing inflation fears and increasing doubts about the profitability of multibillion-dollar AI investments are creating a dangerous mix for equity markets.
Energy prices, in particular, remain a significant burden. They have already left a noticeable mark on producer and consumer prices in recent weeks. Should this trend continue or accelerate, central banks will face growing pressure to respond with further interest rate hikes. Rising bond yields would put additional pressure on equities. Markets therefore face an uncomfortable combination: inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer while eroding consumer purchasing power and corporate profits.
In the technology sector, attention is increasingly shifting towards the economics of the AI boom. Investors are no longer fundamentally questioning the potential of artificial intelligence, but they are becoming more vocal in demanding returns on the enormous investments in AI infrastructure. This week's earnings could provide some answers. Several technology heavyweights, including Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft, are set to report their quarterly results. Their earnings and, above all, their guidance on future capital expenditure will be crucial in determining whether the recent wave of profit-taking continues or investors regain confidence in elevated valuations.
The Ifo Business Climate Index will also take centre stage at the start of the week. From a technical perspective, the DAX is expected to trade within a range of 25,000 to 25,350 points. This keeps the psychologically important 25,000-point mark firmly within reach. Without an easing of inflation risks or convincing corporate earnings, Germany's benchmark index is likely to struggle to establish a sustained recovery above current levels.
