Conditions for the DAX and wider equity markets are becoming increasingly uncomfortable as investor nervousness mounts. More companies are failing to meet even lowered expectations, and the market is punishing them accordingly. Disappointing results from French luxury goods group Hermès are weighing on the entire sector. Even SAP has been unable to capitalise on its strong quarterly results, with investors instead taking the opportunity to lock in profits.
Convincing earnings are no longer enough to persuade investors to buy more shares. Instead, 'sell on good news' is increasingly becoming the market's mantra. Positive corporate announcements are being treated as opportunities to take profits and reduce risk rather than reasons to buy. This is a warning sign about the underlying health of equity markets.
At the heart of investors' concerns is persistently high inflationary pressure. Rising energy prices are putting both consumers and central banks under strain. While households have less disposable income at the end of each month, monetary policymakers face growing pressure to prevent inflation from becoming more deeply entrenched. Companies face a double burden: financing costs remain elevated or rise further, while demand for goods and services weakens.
The full impact of high energy prices also takes time to filter through the economy. Consumers cut back on spending, companies tighten cost controls and central banks lose room to ease monetary policy. What begins as an energy price shock could increasingly become a broader growth problem.
Developments in the Middle East therefore remain crucial. Without a swift de-escalation and a meaningful decline in oil prices, investors' patience is likely to wear increasingly thin. The risk is growing that they will reduce their equity holdings regardless of short-term earnings performance, particularly as more companies adopt a cautious tone in their forward guidance.
