The Week Ahead: UK CPI, Meta and Tesla earnings | CMC Markets
The Week Ahead: UK CPI, Meta and Tesla earnings
Michael J Kramer
Founder, Mott Capital Management
Michael Kramer's key market events for the week beginning 19 October: UK CPI, Meta and Tesla earnings, plus the economic and company events calendar.
Published: Friday, 16 October 2026 at 12.30pm (UK)
The coming week will focus on two major themes. Inflation reports from Canada, the UK, and Japan could influence central banks’ monetary policy decisions later in the month. Meanwhile, a busy US corporate earnings calendar will put Meta and Tesla in the spotlight.
UK CPI
Wednesday 21 October
The UK’s headline consumer price index (CPI) has accelerated to 3.1% year-on-year in August, from 2.6% in June, while core CPI has remained steady at 2.6%. The market has already priced in a 95% chance that the Bank of England will raise rates at its next policy meeting on 5 November.
The CPI report may have limited impact however, as markets still expect the US Federal Reserve to raise rates sooner – and potentially faster – than the Bank of England, following hotter-than-expected September US CPI and producer price index (PPI) reports released on 14 and 15 October. Against this backdrop, GBP/USD has struggled. After a sharp decline, the pair is consolidating but has been unable to rebound.
If UK CPI comes in cooler than expected, GBP/USD could fall below $1.32, potentially weakening to $1.30. The 10- and 20-day moving averages sit above the current price and are acting as strong resistance. However, if GBP/USD manages to rise above those moving averages, it could rally to around $1.33 to $1.335, based on the possibility of a hotter-than-expected inflation report.
GBP/USD, February 2025 – present
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer
Meta Q3 earnings
Wednesday 21 October
Meta is expected to report third-quarter 2026 earnings of $6.11 a share, down 15.7% year-on-year. Revenue is forecast to grow 23.5% to $63.3bn, while capital expenditure is projected to more than double to $39.7bn, compared with $18.8bn year earlier.
For the fourth quarter, analysts expect earnings to fall 6.7% to $8.28 a share, even as revenue is forecast to rise 23% to $73.7bn. Capital expenditure is forecast to reach $49.1bn, more than double the $21.4bn recorded a year earlier. The stock is expected to move 6.2% post-earnings.
Options positioning in Meta is very bullish, suggesting that once the company reports and implied volatility resets, market makers’ hedging flows could put selling pressure on the stock. The options market also indicates support around $700 a share and strong resistance around $750.
The technical chart shows that Meta recently encountered resistance around $780, its September 2025 all-time high. The stock also appears to have established support around $715, potentially forming a double-top pattern. A break below $715 would confirm that pattern and could lead to a retest of a major support area around $680.
If the stock rises above the $750 resistance level indicated by the options market, it could retest its all-time high around $780.
Meta share price, April 2025 – present
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer
Tesla Q3 earnings
Wednesday 21 October
Tesla is expected to report a third-quarter earnings decline of about 15% to $0.43 a share versus a year earlier, while revenue is forecast to fall 0.8% year-on-year to $27.9bn. Capital expenditure could more than triple to $7.5bn, up from $2.3bn a year prior.
Tesla does not provide traditional quarterly guidance. However, analysts expect fourth-quarter earnings to decline by about 7.8% to $0.46 a share, with revenue forecast to rise 14.4% to $28.5bn. Capital expenditure is expected to reach $9bn, up from $2.4bn a year earlier.
The options market is pricing in a post-earnings move of around 6.3%. Positioning is strongly bullish, suggesting that once the electric vehicle maker reports results and implied volatility falls, the unwinding of options positions and market makers’ hedges could put selling pressure on the shares. Option positioning suggests resistance around $385 and support near $350.
Tesla has been trending lower since peaking in December 2025 and is trading below former support around $370. A move back above that level might set up a rally towards $385. However, a drop below support around $350 may send the shares toward $340, the next support level. A further move below $340 could potentially trigger a sharper decline, potentially taking the stock as low as $325.
Tesla share price, October 2025 – present
Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer
Economic & company events calendar
Major scheduled data releases, plus selected UK, US and other listed company results:
Monday 19 October
• Canada: Bank of Canada consumer price index, Business Outlook Survey (September)
