The Week Ahead: UK CPI, global PMIs, Tesla earnings

Published: Friday, 17 July 2026 at 12.30pm (UK)

Corporate earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, Intel, and GE Vernova are likely to dominate markets this week, keeping the AI trade firmly in the headlines. However, inflation and global growth data could still prove important, especially given the dollar's resurgence, which has already pushed the yen to levels not seen in decades, and strengthened the case for central banks to tighten policy.

UK June CPI

Wednesday 22 July Core consumer price index (CPI) data has fallen markedly over the past year, which is likely to be one reason markets are not pricing in an aggressive rate-hiking cycle from the Bank of England (BoE). That differs from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, as well as the US Federal Reserve, where markets expect a more hawkish policy stance. If the core CPI reading continues to suggest that the BoE is unlikely to raise rates, it could weigh further on the pound against the dollar.

More recently, GBP/USD has recovered towards the $1.3460 area after finding support around $1.3200. However, it's now at trend line resistance near $1.3500, and has so far been unable to sustain a breakout above it. If ‘cable’ does break out, it could pave the way for a retest of the highs around $1.3800, although that scenario may require a ‘hot’ CPI figure to encourage such a move. However, if GBP/USD remains below the trend line at $1.3500, the pair could move back towards support around $1.3200, retesting the March and June lows.