Investors in Frankfurt are currently caught between a rock and a hard place, leaving the DAX under continued pressure. On the one hand, markets are hoping for a de-escalation in the Middle East and consequently lower oil prices. On the other, persistently high bond yields and uncertainty over whether the AI boom can continue are keeping investors cautious.
High energy prices have already started to weigh on consumer sentiment, fuelling concerns about the economic outlook in both Europe and the US. At the same time, the AI story remains an important pillar of support for equity markets. Against this backdrop, Micron’s quarterly results will attract considerable attention today. They will need to show whether the AI boom is continuing to translate sufficiently into the semiconductor industry’s underlying business. Should Micron disappoint, the recent rise in scepticism towards the AI sector could quickly translate into renewed selling pressure.
The third major headwind remains high bond yields. They are not only increasing financing costs for companies and governments, but are also making bonds an increasingly attractive alternative to equities. The higher yields rise, the greater the burden on equities to justify their elevated valuations. For now, this is likely to act as a ceiling on share prices and make a sustained upward move more difficult.
Taken together, today’s US economic data were almost a best-case combination for equity markets. The labour market remains robust, the economy is growing more strongly than expected, and inflationary pressures are easing more than feared.
The ADP data continue to point to a stable US labour market. The positive surprise in GDP was even more pronounced. The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.2% in the second quarter, significantly above expectations of 1.5%. Consumer spending and business investment were the main drivers of growth, with high levels of investment in artificial intelligence playing an important role.
