The DAX is testing a key threshold
The DAX opened the new trading week above 25,000 points, putting the psychologically important level back in focus after Friday's pullback. The move leaves the index testing whether improved risk appetite can translate into a more durable break higher, or whether the area again acts as resistance.
Asian markets offered a broadly supportive lead, with technology and semiconductor shares still benefiting from enthusiasm around AI-related demand. The main driver of sentiment, however, remains the Middle East, where investors are watching US-Iran negotiations for signs that the risk premium in energy and equity markets can continue to ease.
Oil and China offer a steadier backdrop
Oil remains the clearest market barometer of that risk. Brent crude has moved back below the $80 mark, suggesting investors are currently attaching a lower probability to a severe disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. That has helped calm immediate inflation concerns, although the market remains vulnerable to abrupt shifts in headlines.
China also avoided adding new pressure at the start of the week. The People's Bank of China left the one-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%, in line with expectations, keeping the policy backdrop stable for regional markets.
Consumer demand remains the next test
Investor attention is now turning to the wider economic consequences of the geopolitical situation. The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report, delayed by Friday's Juneteenth holiday in the US and due at 3.30pm ET today, could attract attention as traders reassess positioning across major markets. Eurozone consumer confidence figures are also due today and may provide a useful signal on whether the region's recovery is gaining traction.
