RKLB Earnings Preview: Can Rocket Lab Escape from SpaceX’s Slipstream?

It’s been a wild ride for space companies. 

The SpaceX [SPCX] IPO has turned the entire sector into a momentum trade. Stocks linked to the space economy rocketed as investors piled into the theme, only to tumble when enthusiasm cooled. Deservedly or not, companies across the industry have found themselves trading in SpaceX’s slipstream, their valuations rising and falling with the market’s appetite for the newly public giant. 

Nowhere is this effect clearer than in the trajectory of Rocket Lab [RKLB] over the last few months. 

RKLB spiked to an all-time high in the build-up to the IPO, but began to collapse in the days before 12 June, as investors started getting cold feet. 

Then, following the IPO, it mirrored SpaceX’s own decline. A late-June rebound was sparked by a string of positive catalysts, including new NASA launch awards and its blockbuster acquisition of Iridium [IRDM] – about which more below – which briefly outweighed the broader post-SpaceX malaise engulfing the space sector.

By early July, however, the market’s focus shifted back to the financing and integration risks surrounding the Iridium acquisition, while enthusiasm for space stocks faded.

Ahead of the firm’s Q2 earnings on 10 August, let’s unpack its recent trajectory, and ask when – or if – Rocket Lab will be able to chart its own course.

Launch trajectory

Founded in 2006 by Sir Peter Beck, the company initially built its reputation with Electron, a small launch vehicle designed to carry satellites into orbit quickly and at relatively low cost. 

Since listing via a SPAC merger in 2021, Rocket Lab has steadily broadened its ambitions beyond launches, acquiring businesses spanning satellite components, solar power systems, flight software and spacecraft manufacturing, to create an end-to-end space infrastructure platform. 

The company’s next major milestone is Neutron, a medium-lift reusable rocket expected to compete for larger commercial and government missions. Rocket Lab has also strengthened its position in the fast-growing space services market through its planned acquisition of satellite operator Iridium. Today, the company generates revenue from launches, spacecraft systems and space services, positioning itself as one of the few credible listed challengers to SpaceX across multiple segments of the space economy.

Recent news

Rocket Lab has continued to strengthen its position in the space sector, recently securing a series of major contracts and strategic moves. Together, these developments foreground Rocket Lab’s strategy of becoming a broader space infrastructure provider rather than simply a rocket launch company.

In June, the company was selected by NASA to provide three Electron launches for the PolSIR and TSIS-2 missions, with launches scheduled from its New Zealand facility from early 2027. The awards highlight Electron’s reliability, with Rocket Lab having completed more than 90 launches, while adding to a growing pipeline of NASA missions including Aspera and LOXSAT.

Days later, Rocket Lab announced its planned $8bn acquisition of Iridium, one of the most significant deals in the space industry. The transaction would combine Rocket Lab’s launch capabilities and satellite manufacturing expertise with Iridium’s global satellite communications network, creating a vertically integrated space company with exposure to satellite connectivity, IoT applications, positioning services and direct-to-device communications.

Rocket Lab also secured its largest launch contract to date in July, winning a $266m agreement with the US Space Force. The contract covers 12 suborbital launches, with the potential for six additional missions, and will see Rocket Lab expand its operational footprint through a new launch site at the Pacific Spaceport Complex-Alaska in Kodiak.

As the Foreign Policy Journal observed, this recent deal reflects what “appears to be a structural shift in Rocket Lab’s business model, with the company increasingly resembling a full-spectrum defence contractor rather than a pure-play launch provider. With future military orders now potentially approaching double prior levels, the trajectory of Rocket Lab’s defence revenue stream is drawing significant attention”.

Also in July, Rocket Lab announced another multi-launch agreement with Japan’s Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space (iQPS), adding three dedicated Electron launches from late 2027. The agreement represents iQPS’s third multi-launch booking with Rocket Lab in less than a year, bringing total booked Electron missions for the company to 18. The launches will support iQPS’s growing Earth-imaging constellation, which uses synthetic aperture radar technology to collect high-resolution data regardless of weather conditions or time of day.

Earnings expectations

Rocket Lab is slated to report its Q2 results on 10 August. Investors will be wondering whether the company can maintain the strong momentum seen earlier in the year. 

The market expects another quarter of investment as Rocket Lab continues to scale its space infrastructure operations, with consensus forecasts pointing to a loss of between $0.07 and $0.08 per share. 

The company has guided for Q2 revenue of $225m-240m. GAAP gross margins are expected at 33-35% and non-GAAP margins between 38% and 40%. 

These figures follow a strong Q1, when revenue reached $200.35m, up 63.4% year-on-year, while total backlog climbed to a record $2.2bn. Investors will be looking for signs that this growth trajectory can continue as Rocket Lab expands beyond launches into broader space systems.

As The Motley Fool recently highlighted, a key detail will be whether the company can provide a list of bookings for a Neutron commercial launch, or a specific timeline for Neutron’s first hot-fire test. “While the company’s Electron launches have given it credibility, it is losing ground in the space race. The more it delays the launch of Neutron, the more competitors in the middle-lift category, such as SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Relativity Space’s Terran R, gain ground.”

Conclusion: The investment case for RKLB stock

Rocket Lab’s recent journey has been defined by one central question: can it escape from SpaceX’s slipstream? While investor sentiment has often moved in tandem with its larger rival, the company’s expanding launch backlog, defence contracts and planned Iridium acquisition suggest a business increasingly capable of forging its own path. Rocket Lab is no longer simply a small-launch specialist; it is building a broader space infrastructure platform spanning rockets, satellites and communications. 

However, execution remains key. The success of the Iridium deal, the delivery of Neutron and continued commercial momentum will determine whether its ambitions translate into long-term value creation. Ahead of Q2 earnings, investors will be looking for evidence that Rocket Lab’s fundamentals can finally take centre stage. The opportunity is significant, but so too are the challenges of competing in an increasingly crowded space race.

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