ONDS Stock: Is 2026 the Year of Ondas?

In the wake of a tumultuous 2025, few observers are expecting 2026 to be any calmer. 

With ongoing conflict in several regions, mounting trade tensions and increased military budgets, one thing is clear: defense spending around the world is set to increase in the medium term as militaries race to modernize. With a new influx of funding, the defense sector is entering a sustained growth cycle to become a key theme for investors to watch. 

Developers of unmanned air vehicles are likely to benefit from the push to modernize warfare. A December 2025 report from Stifel declared 2026 “the Year of the Drones”, citing the US Department of War’s aggressive pivot toward unmanned systems. Analysts led by Jonathan Siegmann argued that drones will become a “massive budget share gainer”, leading to a shake-up in the defense supplier base that could benefit smaller, drone-focused firms. 

One potential winner, Ondas [ONDS], sits at the intersection of several bullish trends in defense spending. The company designs, manufactures and sells connectivity, drone and counter-drone solutions for government, energy, agricultural and industrial clients. It operates in two main segments: Ondas Networks, which provides wireless networking technology, including the FullMAX software-defined radio technology; and Ondas Autonomous Systems, which provides artificial intelligence-enabled (AI) drones and robotics platforms for data collection, package delivery and defense applications. 

Following a long slump in its share price, ONDS had a stellar 2025, nearly quadrupling in value to hover near all-time highs in early 2026. Let’s take a look at the company’s latest updates and the bull and bear cases for this dynamic defense player. 

Contract Windfall 

Orders for the company’s defense solutions accelerated in 2025, with the company securing $10m in contracts for its autonomous systems over the course of the year, building on contract momentum for other technologies. It signed two $8.2m contracts to provide counter-drone systems to major European airports, one in November and one in December, and won a strategic government tender to deploy a border protection system consisting of thousands of drones, with the first order expected in January 2026. 

In addition to accelerating demand, several key announcements made at the beginning of the year point to its maturing structure and financial standing. 

On January 2, the company announced its decision to rebrand from Ondas Holdings to Ondas Inc, while simultaneously moving its headquarters from Boston to West Palm Beach, Florida. Chairman and CEO Eric Brock said that the rebranding aligned with the company’s identity as “a scaled, global defense and security technology platform serving both government and commercial customers, with integrated products, services, manufacturing, and operations”, while the move is intended to take advantage of Florida’s business-friendly regulations and expanding defense ecosystem.

Then, on January 12, the company closed a $1bn public offering of 19 million shares to an institutional investor, as well as pre-funded warrants to purchase up to 41.79 million shares, sold together at a combined offering price of $16.45 — well above the then-closing price of $13.19. The company could raise approximately $3.4bn from the proceeds, which are slated for use in strategic growth, including potential acquisitions or joint ventures. 

Most recently, during the its Ondas Autonomous Systems investor day, the company announced preliminary financial results for 2025, as well as its forecast for 2026. Ondas expects revenue for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, to be in the $27m–29m range, 51% higher than previous forecasts, and revenue for the full year to reach up to $49.6m, up 23% on previous estimates. Its backlog grew 180% to $65.3m, with its 2026 revenue expected to be in the $170–180m range.

ONDS Takes Flight

Following its IPO in December 2020, ONDS stock hit a brief peak of $15.40 per share in February 2021 before beginning a long descent. The stock languished near the $1.00 mark for much of 2023 and 2024. Then, as defense sector growth galvanized in mid-2025 and the company secured two impressive revenue beats, its share price took off, rising 281.25% over the course of the year. 

Its heavy schedule of bullish announcements, including its new contracts and positive financial forecast, have kept the run going into 2026. The stock has gained 28.58% in the year to date and is up a staggering 524.3% in the past 12 months. 

Defense Dynamics: ONDS vs AVAV vs DRS 

While Ondas has certainly captured the attention of both major defense clients and investors, it is far from the only key player in the US drone and defense network segments. 

Like Ondas, AeroVironment [AVAV] is a US-based company that develops unmanned aircraft systems for commercial, defense and government clients. In addition to its autonomous systems solutions, it manufactures high-altitude pseudo-satellites, giving it exposure to the space segment. The firm recorded record revenue of $472.5m in Q2 2026, with growth driven by strong sales in the autonomous systems. With quarterly contract awards reaching $3.5bn, management raised its FY 2026 guidance to a range of $1.95bn–2bn.

Leonardo DRS [DRS], meanwhile, focuses on advanced sensing, computing and electro-optical systems for military use across air, land and sea. The company reported $960m in revenue for Q3 2025, up 18% year-over-year, with a backlog of $8.9bn, up 8% year-over-year. Management also raised guidance for FY2025, with revenue expected in the $3.55m–3.6m range.

Here are how the three stocks’ fundamentals compare: 

Source: Yahoo Finance

ONDS Stock: The Investment Case

The Bull Case for Ondas

With a diversified portfolio encompassing both AI-enable support software, drones and robotics systems, Ondas is benefiting from considerable demand from an international client base. It is using this windfall of funds to pursue a strategic acquisition strategy that could further widen its capabilities — the acquisition of unmanned ground vehicle developer Roboteam, completed in December 2025, is one notable example, and is already impacting the company’s financial forecasts. 

As a US-based drone manufacturer, Ondas looks likely to benefit from the Trump administration’s efforts to “unleash US military drone dominance”. Management has estimated that the company’s revenue could reach $300m by 2030, while some analysts have put that figure as high as $500m. The company is also expected to achieve profitability in 2026.

The Bear Case for Ondas

While 2026 is shaping up to be another bumper year for Ondas, it is not the only player in the market, and certainly not the largest. Given its sky-high P/S ratio, missteps in execution could cause performance to fall short of expectations. The ONDS share price is already near all-time highs, and anything less than a revenue beat would likely spark a pullback.

It also bears mentioning that Ondas remains unprofitable, and persistent negative margins could weigh on the company’s prospects. Additionally, frequent public offerings, such as the most recent in January, present the risk of dilution. 

Conclusion

With military spending around the world ballooning, and autonomous and AI-driven systems such as drones expected to play an increasingly key role in warfare, companies at the bleeding edge of defense technology have a potential advantage over legacy defense contractors. Ondas may end up being one of the winners of this modernization push — assuming it can gain an upper hand over its competitors. With expectations sky high, it remains to be seen if Ondas will continue to soar or come back down to earth.