ZEW may deepen the gap between soft data and the DAX
In the second month of the Middle East conflict, the focus is on whether soft data continues to deteriorate. The Sentix survey already pointed to a broad weakening in sentiment, and consensus expects the ZEW survey to fall further to -10.3 in the eurozone and -10 in Germany, levels last seen during the peak of trade-war tension in April last year. If that deterioration is confirmed, it would widen the gap with a DAX that remains close to record highs and key resistance around 24,771 to 25,207. A positive surprise could give the index some support ahead of Thursday's PMIs and Friday's ifo survey.
Source: TradingView, 20 April 2026
US retail sales may show a weaker consumer backdrop
Consensus expects US retail sales to rise by 0.4% month on month despite the war in Iran and the sharp fall in the University of Michigan consumer-confidence reading. On an annual basis, markets expect growth of 2.4%, one of the weakest readings in recent years and below the pace of CPI. That points to a consumer who is paying more but buying less, a sign that purchasing power is fading. Retail sales are the key gauge of consumer spending, which makes up 68% of GDP and feeds directly into next week's personal-consumption data. Both defensive and cyclical consumer sectors are already losing momentum and have underperformed on a relative basis over recent quarters.
