Published: Friday, 17 April 2026 at 12:15 (UK) Geopolitical tensions remain a key backdrop for markets, but attention will also turn to incoming macroeconomic data and large-cap earnings. US retail sales figures may offer insight into whether higher oil prices are weighing on consumer spending. In the UK, the consumer price index (CPI) update will be closely watched for signals on the Bank of England’s policy path. Meanwhile, US earnings season continues, with Tesla, IBM and Intel among the major names reporting.
US March retail sales
Tuesday 21 April Markets expect retail sales rose around 1% month-on-month in March, with much of the increase likely to be driven by higher petrol prices. It’s worth noting that US retail sales are reported in nominal terms, meaning that the data reflects the total dollar value of goods sold. In other words, the report measures the amount consumers paid, not the physical volume of goods bought, so the data may overstate demand when prices are rising. As a result, it’s important to look beyond the headline reading and consider measures excluding petrol for a clearer view of consumer spending. With headline CPI rising 3.3% in the year to March, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10 April, real spending growth is likely to have been modest in March. Still, a stronger-than-expected reading could suggest continued resilience among US consumers, despite higher petrol prices, and may bolster the dollar against other major currencies such as the euro. , trading near resistance around $1.18 on Friday, may see some movement following the release of the retail sales figures on Tuesday. A robust report could send the pair back down towards $1.16, while weaker data may weigh on the dollar and boost the euro past $1.18 towards higher levels.
