The Week Ahead: US PCE, Dell earnings, Germany CPI

Published: Friday, 22 May 2026 at 12:00 (UK) After a three-day weekend in the UK and the US, markets will return to action on Tuesday 26 May. Although the economic calendar looks relatively light, inflation will remain a focal point thanks to the release on Thursday of the April reading of the US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of rising prices. Friday brings key inflation updates from Japan, Germany and France. In earnings news, laptop makers Dell and HP, as well as retailers Costco and Best Buy, are among the big names set to report quarterly results. Dell is likely to attract attention given its exposure to AI-related infrastructure demand.

US April PCE price index

Thursday 28 May Analysts estimate that the closely watched 'core' PCE print, which highlights underlying inflation trends by excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3% in the year to April, up from 3.2% in March and 3% in February. The acceleration in this crucial measure of inflation may make it more likely that the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates higher for longer, with potential implications for US stock indices. The Nasdaq 100 may be particularly sensitive to the inflation data after a strong rally that has pushed the index more than 25% higher since the end of March to exceed 29,350 points. Recently the upward move has levelled off somewhat. The index reached overbought conditions last week, as measured by the move above the upper Bollinger Band (the thin red line on the chart below) and a relative strength index (RSI) reading of more than 70. Support is currently around 28,550. A dip below that level could increase the risk of a pullback towards lower support levels near 26,700. That said, if the inflation figures come in softer than expected, the Nasdaq's rally could continue, though gains may be limited by resistance near the upper Bollinger Band around 30,160.