Published: Friday, 20 February 2026 at 13:00 (UK)
This week may not offer many headlines, but it could prove the most important of the earnings season, with Nvidia due to report results after the close of New York trading on Wednesday. It’s not only Nvidia investors who will be nervous ahead of the company’s results; the entire global equity market may well be on edge, given the importance of the AI trade.
It would not be surprising to see measures of implied volatility, such as the VIX 1-Day, rise sharply ahead of Nvidia’s results and then fall sharply the day after the company reports. That sharp decline in implied volatility could lift the S&P 500 regardless of Nvidia’s actual results, as volatility often resets once the anxiety subsides, potentially triggering a mechanical ‘relief rally.’
Nvidia Q4 earnings
Wednesday 25 February The Nasdaq-listed company with the world’s largest market capitalisation of $4.5tn, is expected to report earnings growth of 71.4% year-on-year to $1.53 per share for Q4. Meanwhile, revenue for the quarter is expected to rise 67.5% year-on-year to $65.9bn, with gross margins expanding sequentially to 75% from 73.6%. Guidance may matter more, with analysts expecting fiscal Q1 2027 earnings to rise by 74% to $1.67 per share, while revenue climbs 62.7% to $71.7bn. Margins are expected to remain broadly flat at 74.9%. The stock is expected to move by around 6.2% following the results.
