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FX Analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (29 Mar 2022)

forex

EUR/USD – Whipsawed around 1.0960/0940 key short-term support

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The EUR/USD has challenged the 1.0960 key short-term pivotal support as per highlighted in our prior report published on last Friday (printed an intraday low of 1.0943 on 28 March) before it reintegrated above 1.0960.

Mixed elements now, prefer to turn neutral between 1.1000 & 1.0940. On a clearance with an hourly close above 1.1000 reinstates the potential bullish tone for push up towards 1.1040.1070 and 1.1120 next. On the flipside, a break with an hourly close below 1.0940 sees a further slide towards the 1.0900 key medium-term pivotal support.

GBP/USD – Broke below short-term ascending channel support

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The GBP/USD has broken below 1.3150 key short-term pivotal support and invalidated the preferred bullish bias scenario as per highlighted in our prior report published on last Friday.

GBP/USD has started to evolve into a short-term descending channel since 23 March high. Flip to a bearish bias below 1.3160 key short-term pivotal resistance for another potential down leg to target the next support at 1.3030.

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.3160 negates the bearish tone for a push up towards 1.3215 (the minor swing high areas of 24/25 March & former ascending channel support form 15 March 2022 low).

USD/JPY – Squeezed up, a further potential acceleration towards major resistance

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The USD/JPY has broken above the 122.25 key short-term pivotal support and invalidated the preferred minor pull-back scenario as per highlighted in our prior report published on last Friday.

It has rallied by +286 pips to print an intraday high of 125.10 yesterday, 28 March under the backdrop of BoJ’s intervention in the JGB market via purchase operation under the Yield Curve Control programme to keep the 10-year JGB yield from breaching above its upper limit at 0.25%.

Flip back to a bullish bias with 122.40 as the key short-term pivotal support for a further potential rally to target the 125.30/80 major resistance zone. However, a break with an hourly close below 122.40 opens up scope for a pull-back/consolidation of its current steep uptrend towards the next support zone at 121.30/120.55 in the first step.

AUD/USD – Emergence of short-term bearish elements

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The recent price actions of AUD/USD have staged bearish breakdown below the short-term ascending channel support from 15 March 2022 low and the 55-period moving average after a test on the 0.7530/7560 range resistance in place since October 2021 high.

Flip to a bearish bias from a neutral stance as per highlighted in our previous report published on last Friday. Watch the 0.7560 key medium-term pivotal resistance for a further potential drop towards the next supports at 0.7415 and 0.7370.

However, a clearance with a 4-hour close above 0.7560 sees the continuation of the medium-term impulsive up move sequence towards the next resistances at 0.7640 and 0.7690.

Time stamped: 29 Mar 2022 at 1.30pm SGT

Source: TradingView


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