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FX analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (19 Jul 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – 1.0200 hit, potential extension of snap-backed rally 

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EUR/USD has staged the expected snap-backed rally and hit the 1.0200 resistance/target (printed an intraday high of 1.0202 on 18 July) as per highlighted in our previous report dated 12 July 2022.

Short-term elements are still bullish which advocates an extension of the snap-backed rally. Watch the tightened key short-term pivotal support at 1.0050 to maintain a further potential short-term corrective rebound within a major downtrend phase to retest 1.0200 before a push up towards the next resistance at 1.0270.

On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 1.0050 negates the snap-backed rally scenario for a further drop to retest the key support zone of 1.0000/0.9950.

GBP/USD – Maintain bullish bias above tightened key support at 1.1870

(click to enlarge chart)

GBP/USD has shaped the expected corrective rebound and almost hit the 1.2040 resistance/target (printed an intraday high of 1.2033 on 18 July) as per highlighted in our previous report dated 12 July 2022.

Maintain the bullish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal support now at 1.1870 for another leg of potential corrective rebound towards the next resistance at 1.2095.

However, a break with an hourly close below 1.1870 negates the bullish tone for a slide to retest the 14 July 2022 swing low of 1.1760, and below it sees a further drop towards 1.1680/1650 next.

USD/JPY – Upside momentum abated, risk of a pull-back

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USD/JPY has staged the expected squeeze up and hit the first resistance/target of 138.50 (printed an intraday high of 139.39 on 14 July) as per highlighted in our previous report dated 12 July 2022.

Short-term momentum has started to abate as indicated by the latest observations seen in the hourly RSI oscillator that has broken below key corresponding support at the 50% level. Flip to a bearish bias below 138.70 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential further pull-back towards the supports of 137.60 and 137.10 with a maximum limit set at 136.35.

On the flip side, a clearance with an hourly close above 138.70 reinstates the bullish impulsive sequence for a rally towards the next resistance at 140.10.

AUD/USD – Further potential extension of corrective rebound

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AUD/USD has staged a bullish exit from its short-term descending channel in place since the 17 June 2022 high and hit the expected resistance/target of 0.6850 (printed an intraday high of 0.6854 on 18 July) as highlighted in our previous report dated 12 July 2022.

Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal support at 0.6760 for a further potential corrective rebound towards the next resistances at 0.6890 and 0.6915 within a major downtrend phase.

However, a break with an hourly close below 0.6760 negates the bullish tone for a drop to retest the 14 July 2022 swing low area of 0.6680/6670.

Time-stamped: 19 July 2022 at 11.30 am SGT

Source: CMC Markets

 


Disclaimer: CMC Markets Singapore may provide or make available research analysis or reports prepared or issued by entities within the CMC Markets group of companies, located and regulated under the laws in a foreign jurisdictions, in accordance with regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where such information is issued or promulgated to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor, CMC Markets Singapore accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the analysis or report, to the extent required by law. Recipients of such information who are resident in Singapore may contact CMC Markets Singapore on 1800 559 6000 for any matters arising from or in connection with the information.

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