A fragile ceasefire is keeping markets on edge
The DAX is expected to open Thursday's session around 23,955. The 14-day ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran is already showing signs of strain, with continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon threatening to destabilise the arrangement further.
That outcome was always a risk. Negotiations and the maintenance of any ceasefire were likely to prove difficult, and the broader situation in Iran remains complex, with secondary regional flashpoints adding to the uncertainty.
Oil prices are back in focus
Investors are using oil prices as one of the clearest indicators of whether tensions are easing or worsening. Brent crude has climbed back towards the $100 mark, suggesting there is still no meaningful relief in sight for Germany's energy-dependent industrial sector or for European consumers.
That is feeding through into weaker sentiment in the DAX. For now, investors may need to accept that the conflict will remain the dominant market theme.
Inflation and rate expectations still matter
Even with the US earnings season approaching, inflation and central-bank policy continue to shape the broader market trend. That means Thursday's US macro data may draw particular attention, especially initial jobless claims, consumer spending and the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.
If inflation pressures remain elevated while geopolitical tensions persist, the rebound in risk assets may remain vulnerable.
