OpenAI IPO: What traders should know

What is OpenAI?

OpenAI is an artificial intelligence company best known for creating ChatGPT, the AI chatbot that launched in November 2022 and became the fastest-growing consumer application in history. Founded in 2015 as a non-profit research lab, it has since restructured into a for-profit public benefit corporation and now operates as the world’s most valuable startup.

OpenAI’s core products and services:

• ChatGPT – an AI assistant used by more than 800 million people weekly for writing, research, coding and conversation

• GPT API and enterprise platform – allows businesses to build AI-powered tools on top of OpenAI’s models. More than one million companies use this platform

• DALL·E – an AI image-generation tool that creates visuals from text prompts

• Codex and coding tools – AI-powered code generation and debugging for software developers

• Sora – a video-generation model that creates short clips from text descriptions

How does OpenAI make its money?

OpenAI sells access to its AI models through subscriptions, business licences and strategic partnerships. Unlike traditional software companies, its costs are dominated by the computing power required to train and run its models.

OpenAI’s revenue comes from several key streams.

• ChatGPT subscriptions

• API and enterprise licensing

• Microsoft partnership and revenue share

• Advertising (launched January 2026)

• Strategic licensing deals

ChatGPT subscriptions – individual users pay $20 per month for ChatGPT Plus or $200 per month for ChatGPT Pro, which offer faster responses, advanced features and priority access. Subscription revenue from ChatGPT’s hundreds of millions of users is OpenAI’s largest income source.

API and enterprise licensing – businesses pay usage-based fees to access OpenAI’s models through its API. More than one million companies use these tools to power their own products and services.

Microsoft partnership and revenue share – Microsoft has invested over $13bn in OpenAI and integrates its models into products such as Copilot and Azure AI. Under their agreement, Microsoft receives a 20% share of OpenAI’s revenue.

Advertising – in January 2026, OpenAI began showing ads to some US users of the free ChatGPT tier. This is an early-stage revenue stream, but one with significant growth potential given ChatGPT’s user base.

Strategic licensing deals – OpenAI earns revenue from large one-off licensing agreements with enterprise clients and governments, including partnerships tied to the $500bn Stargate AI infrastructure project with SoftBank and Oracle.

OpenAI’s CFO Sarah Friar confirmed in January 2026 that annualised revenue had passed $20bn, up from $6bn in 2024 (Reuters, January 2026).

What is the OpenAI IPO launch date?

OpenAI has not confirmed an official IPO date. Reports indicate the company is leaning toward delaying its public listing to 2027.

The New York Times reported in late June 2026 that OpenAI is considering holding off until next year, rather than proceeding in late 2026 as earlier preparations had suggested. The company has confidentially filed with the SEC but has stated that timing remains undecided and “may be a while.”

Key factors include CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on a roughly $1 trillion valuation and broader market volatility. No official date has been set.

How to get exposure to OpenAI pre-IPO

1. Open a CFD trading account

With our pre-IPO market, you can take a position on OpenAI through a CFD trade ahead of its listing, and speculate on whether its price will rise or fall against our expected listing price after its IPO.

2. Your position rolls into the listed market

Once OpenAI lists on a stock exchange and its shares start trading in the underlying market, your position rolls into our listed share CFD. This means your position continues, and you retain full control over when to close it.

3. What happens if the IPO is cancelled

If the OpenAI IPO is cancelled or doesn't happen for any reason, your open positions will be closed at the price they were opened, and no profit or loss will be realised.

What could OpenAI be worth at IPO?

There is significant speculation around the OpenAI share price and what the company’s market cap could be at IPO. In October 2025, an employee share sale valued OpenAI at $500bn. By December 2025, the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI was seeking $100bn in new funding at an $830bn valuation, with some reports suggesting the IPO itself could target $1tn or more (WSJ, December 2025).

For context, Meta was valued at $104bn when it went public in 2012, and Uber at $82bn in 2019. If OpenAI lists near $1tn, it would be among the largest IPOs in history. Sceptics point out that OpenAI’s price-to-sales ratio at $830bn would be roughly 65 times 2025 revenue – far higher than most technology companies.

Note: these estimates are speculative and based on private market transactions and media reports. Valuations can change significantly before and after an IPO and do not indicate future share price performance.

What are OpenAI’s financials like?

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

OpenAI’s revenue growth has been rapid. The company went from roughly $2bn in annualised revenue at the end of 2023 to $6bn in 2024, and its CFO confirmed the figure surpassed $20bn by the end of 2025 (Reuters, January 2026). That growth has been driven by paid ChatGPT subscriptions, rapid enterprise adoption and expanding API usage.

However, OpenAI remains heavily loss-making. The company does not expect to reach profitability until around 2030, and internal projections suggest losses of $14bn in 2026 alone. HSBC analysts estimate OpenAI may need over $207bn in additional funding by 2030 to maintain operations, even accounting for projected revenue growth. For investors, the gap between revenue growth and the path to profitability is a key metric to watch.

Why are traders interested in this IPO?

OpenAI has experienced significant recent growth: ChatGPT attracted 800 million weekly active users faster than any consumer application in history, and revenue has roughly tripled year on year. The global AI market is projected to exceed $1tn in the coming years, and OpenAI sits at the centre of that expansion.

Brand recognition gives OpenAI a significant edge, albeit competitive pressures remain. ChatGPT has become a household name – synonymous with generative AI in the same way Google became synonymous with search. This level of consumer awareness is difficult for competitors to replicate, and it gives OpenAI a strong foundation for expanding into new products and markets.

Strategic partnerships strengthen its position further. Microsoft has invested over $13bn and integrates OpenAI’s models across its product suite. The $500bn Stargate Project, a joint AI infrastructure venture with SoftBank and Oracle, signals the scale of ambition. For investors, the question is whether this first-mover advantage can translate into lasting market dominance and, eventually, profits.

What are the risks and challenges?

OpenAI faces a range of risks and challenges, including a shifting regulatory landscape, significant funding requirements, intensifying competition and uncertainty around its governance structure.

The regulatory environment remains unsettled. Governments are still developing rules covering AI safety, privacy, copyright, competition and corporate accountability. Different requirements across jurisdictions could increase compliance costs, restrict products or delay expansion. OpenAI has identified frontier-model safety, deepfakes, youth protection and AI infrastructure as key policy issues.

Profitability pressure is also intense. OpenAI has committed to over $1.4tn in data-centre and infrastructure spending over the coming years. It expects losses of $14bn in 2026 alone, and profitability is not forecast until 2030. HSBC estimates a $207bn funding gap by 2030, which means the company may need to raise additional capital even after an IPO. History shows that high-profile tech IPOs do not always deliver for early investors.

Competition is fierce and accelerating. Google’s Gemini has grown its web traffic share from 5.7% to 21.5% in the past 12 months, according to Similarweb, while ChatGPT’s share has dropped from 86.7% to 64.5% over the same period. Anthropic, xAI and Meta are all investing heavily. There is also the structural risk of OpenAI’s ongoing conversion from a non-profit to a for-profit entity, which creates governance uncertainty that public market investors typically dislike.

Who are OpenAI’s competitors?

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

The generative AI sector is one of the most competitive in technology. OpenAI’s rivals include:

• Anthropic (Claude) – the most direct competitor, reportedly targeting $20–$26bn in revenue for 2026 and planning its own late-2026 IPO. Backed by Amazon and Google.

• Google DeepMind (Gemini) – Google’s AI division has rapidly gained market share and benefits from Apple Intelligence integration. Parent company Alphabet [GOOGL] trades on the Nasdaq.

• xAI (Grok) – Elon Musk’s AI venture, also reportedly preparing for an IPO. The company has reportedly built the world’s largest AI supercomputer.

• Meta AI (Llama) – Meta [META] offers open-source AI models, pressuring competitors on price and accessibility.

• Microsoft (Copilot) – despite being OpenAI’s largest backer, Microsoft [MSFT] also competes directly through its own Copilot products built on OpenAI’s technology.

Some traders and investors choose to gain indirect exposure to the AI sector through publicly listed companies, such as Alphabet [GOOGL], Meta [META] and Microsoft [MSFT]. These companies have diverse business models and associated risks.

OpenAI’s key differentiator is its first-mover brand advantage with ChatGPT and the depth of its Microsoft partnership. However, Chinese AI firms such as DeepSeek are emerging as formidable rivals, offering comparable performance at a fraction of the cost. Readers with an interest in the AI sector should keep an eye on industry developments.

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