OKLO Stock: What to Expect from Q1 Earnings

Introduction

Santa Clara, California-based nuclear firm Oklo [OKLO] aims to design, build, and operate small modular reactors — facilities it calls “powerhouses” — to provide clients with clean energy. 

The company is focused on nuclear fission and using recycled waste as fuel, and has three project sites, with the first expected to begin operations in 2027. 

A venture capital darling, Oklo has long benefitted from the support of OpenAI’s Sam Altman, who has served as chairman of the board since the company was founded in 2013. But with Altman’s departure announced in late April, many investors are wondering if the news will prove good or bad for OKLO stock. 

Here, OPTO explores the company’s prospects ahead of the Q1 2025 earnings release on May 13, as well as the bull and bear cases for OKLO stock. 

Targeting Partnerships

On April 22, the company announced that Altman was to step down as chairman, to be replaced by Co-founder and CEO Jacob DeWitte. While OKLO stock dropped on the news, this move clears the way for the company to form partnerships with artificial intelligence-related (AI) hyperscalers such as OpenAI without conflict of interest. 

On March 24, the company announced it is engaging with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NCR) for its combined license application for its 15MW Aurora powerhouse, located at the Idaho National Laboratory. The NCR previously rejected Oklo’s license application in January 2022, citing its failure to provide key information regarding the Aurora site.

Additionally, in December 2024, Oklo signed a 12GW power agreement with data center firm Switch, one of the largest-ever corporate clean power agreements. 

Power Surge

Oklo debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in May 2024 following a merger with Altman-sponsored special purpose acquisition company AltC Acquisition Corp, which contributed $306m to support Oklo’s business plan. 

The OKLO share price remained in the $6–10 range until mid-October 2024, as investor sentiment grew, buoyed further by the election of US President Donald Trump in November. The stock spiked in February as AI-driven power demand skyrocketed, with companies such as Microsoft [MSFT] tapping nuclear as a carbon-neutral source of energy for data centers. 

OKLO stock reached an all-time high of $59.14 on February 10 before falling back down to the $20–30 range amid wider macroeconomic turmoil and the announcement of widening losses in FY 2024.

As of May 9, OKLO stock was up 32.31% year-to-date and up 85.17% in the past 12 months. 

Powering AI

In May 2024, Goldman Sachs estimated that, as a result of AI-training activities, by 2030 data centers will consume 3–4% of global power and produce double the carbon emissions. Since then, numerous tech giants have sought partnerships to power their data centers, driving a bull market for clean energy providers in the process. 

Oklo announced earnings for Q4 and FY 2024 on March 24, 2025, reporting a full-year operating loss of $52.8m. The company also reported cash use of $38.4m and total supply of cash and marketable securities at $275.3m for the financial year. It missed EPS estimates by $0.02, and is expected to report EPS of -$0.10 in Q1 2025, according to Yahoo Finance. 

Constellation Energy [CEG] — which boasts 31.7GW of power capacity, including nuclear, wind and solar assets — has been another benefactor of data center power partnerships, signing a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft in September 2024. In its earnings for Q1 2025 it reported an earnings miss of $1.77, although it beat analyst revenue estimates by $1.35bn. 

Power company Bloom Energy [BE] is also targeting larger data center power agreements, with its collaboration with Equinix [EQIX] expanding to 100MW in February 2025. In its Q1 2025 earnings release it reported an EPS beat of $0.09 and record revenue of $326m, up 38.6% year-over-year.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Oklo has yet to record a profit, and is not expected to do so until operations of its assets begin in 2027 or 2028. Bloom, which is of a similar size in terms of market cap, has a healthy growth estimate for the next two years. Constellation, meanwhile, outweighs both in size but is set to grow only marginally in the coming years. 

OKLO Stock: The Investment Case

The Bull Case for Oklo

Demand for the company’s powerhouses is clear, with its total orders surging 2,000% from July 2023 to nearly 14.1GW. The company has emphasized the increased scalability of its powerhouses, with each unit reportedly capable of generating up to 75MW of power. 

The radioisotope and recycled fuel markets also represent key areas of potential growth for Oklo. The company signed a memorandum of understanding with fellow nuclear firm Lightbridge [LTBR] in January 2025 to collaborate on advanced fuel recycling processes. Additionally, on February 28, 2025, Oklo completed its acquisition of radioisotope producer Atomic Alchemy for $25m in an all-stock transaction. 

Analyst sentiment for the stock remains positive, with Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reiterating an ‘outperform’ rating and a $45 price target for OKLO stock, which implies an upside of 60.2% from the close on May 9. 

The Bear Case for Oklo

Despite these exciting developments, it is important to note that Oklo has not yet constructed any powerhouses. It also operates in the red, with both its losses and negative free cash flow almost doubling in FY 2024. 

Oklo is upfront about its loss-making. “We are an early‑stage company with a history of financial losses, and we expect to incur significant expenses and continuing financial losses,” the company said in its Q4 2024 earnings report.

The company projects losses to continue in the medium-term, with estimated cash usage at $65m–80m for FY 2025, as it expands its team and pours more funds into both its Aurora project and fuel recycling activities. Bears for the stock argue that the company is overvalued, with shares trading at 30 times its projected 2028 revenue despite continued delays in project implementation. 

Conclusion

Altman’s departure from Oklo’s board of directors seemingly positions the company to benefit from partnerships with hyperscalers such as OpenAI. However, given the company continues to operate at a loss, OKLO stock does come with an inherent risk that may not appeal to more cautious investors.