IOT Stock: Can Samsara Dominate the Internet of Things?

Incorporated in 2015, San Francisco-based Samsara [IOT] deploys IoT-based solutions to serve the transport and logistics industries. Originally focused on fleet management, the company has expanded its portfolio to include equipment and site monitoring, safety solutions and artificial intelligence-powered (AI) operational analytics. Their Connected Operations Cloud platform “allows businesses that depend on physical operations to harness IoT data to develop actionable business insights and improve their operations.”

With a wide customer base, impressive sector credentials and strong financial performance, Samsara represents a play on a theme that often fails to capture significant investor attention. However, persistent valuation concerns and the outsized impact of sector volatility have put major pressure on Samsara’s share price in recent months. Here, OPTO examines the headwinds and tailwinds facing Samsara stock in the run-up to Q3 2026 earnings. 

Increasing ARR, AI Tools

After hitting the milestone of $1bn in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in December 2023, Samsara has continued to demonstrate solid financial health, beating top- and bottom-line estimates for at least the past seven quarters, according to TradingView data. In Q2 2026, reported in early September, the firm earned revenue of $391.5m in revenue, up 30% year-over-year, and logged 2,771 customers generating $1.64bn in ARR. The company also signed seven new $1m ARR deals in the quarter. That said, the company remains unprofitable, with a GAAP operating margin of -7%.

Management underlined Q2 revenue growth as evidence of “how the rise of the AI-driven economy is amplifying demand for our platform”, as the company has been integrating AI tools to help expand its service offerings. A major expansion of its AI-powered safety platform in September aims to mitigate inclement weather or natural disaster risks, and improve employee performance and safety.

In less positive news, the company saw its stock slide nearly 7% on September 9, a move management attributed to stock distribution, although it also coincided with a patent ruling from the US International Trade Commission that California-based Motive’s vehicle telematics, fleet management and video-based safety systems don’t infringe Samsara’s US patents.

For Q3 2026, the company expects total revenue to grow 24% to reach the $398m–400m range, and non-GAAP EPS at $0.11–0.12. For the full year, the company has set targets of $1.574bn–1.578bn for revenue and $0.45–0.47 for EPS, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 15%. Samsara is set to report Q3 2026 earnings on Thursday, December 4.

Stops and Starts with IOT Stock

Samsara debuted on the New Exchange in December 2021 at a price of $23 per share. After a steep dip through to the end of 2022, it began a steady rally that carried its share price to an all-time high of $61.90 on February 19, 2025. Following such a strong start to the year, shares dipped sharply in late February and then again in April, largely due to competition pressures in the IoT and fleet management sectors and other macroeconomic factors. IoT stock rose again in anticipation of Q1 2026 earnings, only to dip again in August despite strong earnings amid market volatility and valuation concerns. As of December 1, the stock was down 14.68% in the year to date. 

Facing Diversified Competitors: IOT vs CSCO vs VZ

Many of Samsara’s direct competitors in the fleet management space, including Geotab, Lytx and Motive, are privately owned, making IOT stock a rare chance for investors to get direct exposure to the sector. However, several large tech companies, including Microsoft [MSFT] and Oracle [ORCL], offer IoT services that overlap with Samsara’s main business areas. 

Cisco Systems [CSCO] has drawn attention for its data center connectivity solutions, but the company also operates a Mobility Services Platform and IoT Control Center, supporting over 270 million IoT devices used by customers in industries from automotive to manufacturing, logistics and healthcare. The firm recorded year-over-year revenue growth of 8% to reach $14.9bn in Q1 2026, driven by accelerated order growth across all campus networking technologies, including IoT. Total ARR also grew by 5% to $31.4bn.

Verizon’s [VZN] Connect platform also overlaps with Samsara’s fleet management operations, offering GPS tracking, route and fuel optimization, driver behavior monitoring, and compliance tools for clients operating large logistics fleets. While the company does not specify revenue from the Connect platform in its quarterly reports, in Q3 2025 the company recorded $33.82bn in revenue, up 1.5% year-over-year. Verizon may be scaling back on fleet management operations, however — in October, private IoT logistics firm Geotab acquired Verizon Connect’s telematics business in Australia and Europe. 

Here’s how the three stocks’ fundamentals compare: 

Source: Yahoo Finance

IOT is the smallest of the three stocks in terms of market cap, and has the highest P/S ratio, reflecting its relatively narrow business compared to Cisco and Verizon’s diversified offerings. That said, Samsara boasts the highest sales growth figures, thanks to its robust financial performance and potential to expand into new segments in the coming years. 

IOT Stock: The Investment Case

The Bull Case for Samsara

Following the most recent earnings report, a number of analysts raised their rating for IOT stock, citing solid quarterly performance amid a recovery from tariff-related headwinds and the growth potential behind over 350 partner integrations. Craig-Hallum upgraded the stock to ‘buy’ from a ‘hold’ rating, with a price target of $48.00. Wells Fargo and Evercore both maintained their ratings, with target prices of $50.00 and $45.00, respectively. 

IOT bulls often point out the company’s large total addressable market (TAM). Fleet management and logistics IoT represents a TAM of $50bn, with Samsara capturing just 1% of that. Expansion into manufacturing and industrial operations could further serve to widen Samsara’s potential revenue streams.

The Bear Case for Samsara

While analysts are consistently impressed by Samsara’s revenue growth, it remains pre-profit. Regardless, as evidenced by the swings seen in the IOT share price over the past year, logistics is a volatile space, sensitive to macro shocks such as tariffs and global conflict. In short, the performance of Samsara shares may rely more on external factors than the company’s actual financial health, introducing considerable risk. 

Competition is another key headwind, as Samsara competes with both large, diversified firms like Oracle and Verizon in the IoT space as a whole, and smaller private firms like Geotab in the logistics space. 

Conclusion

As one of the few publicly traded pure-play IoT companies in logistics, Samsara offers investors unique exposure to an often overlooked sector. Having recovered from tariff-related headwinds, the company is growing both quarterly revenue and ARR figures, as well as courting larger customers. However, macroeconomic volatility and increased competition both serve as key obstacles for this pre-profit company’s growth trajectory.