The Week Ahead: US ISM, jobs report, AMD earnings

Earnings will remain a key focus this week, as newly-listed SpaceX reports its first results as a public company. Investors will also be watching earnings from Palantir and Advanced Micro Devices. The economic calendar is equally busy with several important data releases, including the US ISM manufacturing and services indices, and closing out the week, the July US employment report, featuring the non-farm payrolls.

US ISM manufacturing

Monday 3 August

The ISM manufacturing index is expected to show that activity expanded in July, with the headline rate reading rising to 54 from 53.3. The prices paid index is forecast to decline to 70 from 73.0, while the new orders index is expected to improve to 57 from 56.

On Wednesday, the closely-watched ISM services index is published. Market participants will be looking for further evidence that the US economy remains resilient, while paying close attention to the prices paid index for signs that inflation continues to moderate, as it did in June.

The data will also be important from an FX perspective. More recently, EUR/USD appears to have formed a potential bottom, after what had looked like a bear flag. It has since rebounded above $1.14 and is now trading around $1.1550, having moved back above its 10-day exponential moving average.

If the manufacturing and services data come in weaker than expected, the euro could extend its recent gains, with the next resistance level around $1.1620. However, the broader downtrend remains intact. If the data indicate that the US economy is expanding more strongly than expected, the euro could quickly fall back below $1.14 and resume its move towards support near $1.12.

EUR/USD, September 2025 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

AMD Q2 earnings

Tuesday 4 August

Advanced Micro Devices is expected to report second-quarter earnings of $1.61 a share, up from $0.48 a year earlier. Revenue is forecast to rise by 46.8% to $11.3bn, while gross margins are expected to expand to 55.9% from 43% a year earlier.

For the third quarter, analysts expect AMD to forecast earnings of $1.87 a share, up from $1.20, with revenue projected to rise by 35.3% to $12.5bn. Gross margins are also expected to improve, rising to 56.1% from 54% a year earlier.

AMD options positioning appears bullish, but once the company reports and implied volatility resets, market-maker hedging flows could begin to work against the stock, creating downside pressure. In addition, options data suggests that AMD faces significant resistance around $500, where open interest is concentrated. On the downside, the first major support level appears to be around $460.

AMD has shown signs of increasing technical weakness in recent weeks, with the stock appearing to form a rounding top as it tested support around the $450 level. It briefly broke below that support late last week before quickly recovering and rallying towards the $500 gap.

If AMD can break above $500, the technical picture could improve significantly, opening the door to a move towards the $575 region. However, if the stock breaks below support at $450, it could decline towards $415 and potentially towards a large unfilled gap around the $350 level, which may ultimately act as a longer-term downside objective.

AMD share price, February 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

US jobs report

Friday 7 August

The July employment report is expected to show non-farm payrolls rose by 91,000, up from 57,000 in June. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 4.3% from 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are forecast to remain unchanged at 0.3% month on month. A stronger-than-expected employment report could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year, which may weigh on risk assets.

The S&P 500 has struggled in recent weeks, with its most recent high on 2 June. Since then, the index has trended lower, and is now testing support around 7,300. It also remains just below its 10-day exponential moving average. A break above that average, or above the current downtrend, could set it on a course towards 7,525 and potentially as high as 7,575.

However, if the downtrend remains intact and the employment report comes in stronger than expected, pushing interest rate expectations higher, the index could break below support at 7,300 and head towards 7,140.

S&P 500, March 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic & company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases, plus selected UK, US and other listed company results:

Monday 3 August
• China: July manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI)
• Germany: June retail sales
• Switzerland: July consumer price index (CPI)
• US: July ISM manufacturing PMI
• Results: Clarkson (HY), FDM Group (HY), F&C Investment Trust (HY), Marriott International (Q2), Palantir Technologies (Q2), Senior (HY), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Q2)

Tuesday 4 August
• Canada: July S&P Global manufacturing PMI
• US: June factory orders, June JOLTS job openings
• Results: Advanced Micro Devices (Q2), Aptiv (Q2), BP (Q2), Caterpillar (Q2), ConvaTec (HY), DuPont de Nemours (Q2), Duke Energy (Q2), HSBC (HY), Smith & Nephew (HY), SpaceX (Q2)

Wednesday 5 August
• China: July services PMI
• Eurozone: June producer price index
• New Zealand: Q2 unemployment rate
• US: July ADP employment change, July ISM services PMI
• Results: 4imprint (HY), Beazley (HY), Eli Lilly (Q2), Ibstock (HY), Legal & General (HY), The Walt Disney Company (Q3), S4 Capital (HY), New York Times (Q2)

Thursday 6 August
• Australia: June trade balance
• Eurozone: June retail sales
• US: July Challenger job cuts, weekly initial jobless claims
• Results: Admiral Group (HY), ATI (Q2), ConocoPhillips (Q2), Diageo (FY), Harbour Energy (HY), Howmet Aerospace (Q2), Parker-Hannifin (Q4), PENN Entertainment (Q2), Persimmon (HY), Quilter (HY), Tripadvisor (Q2)

Friday 7 August
• Canada: July unemployment rate
• China: July trade balance
• US: July average hourly earnings, July non-farm payrolls, July unemployment rate
• Results: Oklo (Q2), Under Armour (Q1), Vistra (Q2)

Note: Announcements and dates are subject to change. Cross-check times in your timezone using the platform market calendar.

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