The Week Ahead: US CPI, Warsh testimony, Netflix earnings

It will be a busy week for earnings, with several major US banks reporting results, including JPMorgan, Citi and Bank of America. Investors will also be watching technology companies ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor, whose results remain important to the artificial intelligence (AI) trade.

The week also brings US consumer price index (CPI) data, while several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak alongside former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh's first testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Together, they could provide fresh clues on inflation, interest rates and the outlook for financial markets.

US June CPI

Tuesday 14 July

US headline CPI for June is expected to decline 0.1% month-on-month after a 0.5% increase in May. On an annual basis, inflation is forecast to ease to 3.7% from 4.2%. Core CPI, however, is expected to remain elevated, with prices forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2% in May. Annual core inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%.

USD/JPY could be among the FX pairs most affected if the CPI report comes in below expectations. Oil and petrol prices have fallen substantially, creating downside risk for the month-on-month reading and increasing the possibility of a cooler-than-expected inflation reading.

If that were to happen, USD/JPY could weaken below the ¥161.50 level and potentially move back towards the ¥159.50 to ¥160.50 range. While that may not signal the end of the yen’s broader issues, it could represent a short-term victory against the dollar, giving the Bank of Japan and the Japanese government some breathing room.

USD/JPY, May 2024 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Kevin Warsh testimony

Several Federal Reserve officials will speak this week, alongside former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Traders will be looking for clues on inflation, the labour market and the path of interest rates.

Hawkish comments could support the US dollar, lift bond yields and pressure equities, while dovish remarks may boost risk assets.

Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify on Tuesday at 10:00am ET (Tuesday 12:00am AEST / Tuesday 2:00am NZST).

Comments on sticky core inflation, oil and geopolitical risks, and how the Fed may respond to incoming data. Fed rhetoric, alongside this week's CPI and PPI releases, could drive volatility across the US dollar, bonds and equities.

The Nasdaq 100 remains highly sensitive to inflation data, Fed commentary and major tech earnings. Watch for increased volatility and any break of recent support or resistance levels.

^{Sources: TradingView}

Netflix Q2 earnings

Thursday 16 July

Netflix is expected to report second-quarter 2026 earnings of $0.79 a share, representing a 9.7% growth, while revenue is forecast to increase 13.7% year-on-year to $12.6bn. Q3, analysts expect earnings to rise 43.7% to $0.84 a share, with revenue forecast to increase by 13.1% to $13bn. The options market is pricing in a move of around 7.3% following the results.

Options positioning remains relatively bearish, suggesting the shares could rally after the earnings announcement, as implied volatility declines and market makers adjust their hedges. It also suggests the strongest area of resistance is around $90 a share, while support is concentrated near $70.

From a technical perspective, Netflix is trading near an important support level after filling the October 2024 gap around $70. The shares are testing the 20-day moving average, and a move above it could pave the way for a rally towards $82. Netflix is also attempting to break above a longer-term downtrend.

However, there is a longer-term risk that the stock is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, a development that is generally viewed as bearish. The shares have already fallen below the pattern’s neckline near $75, and a sustained break below $70 could strengthen that technical signal, potentially opening the door to a move into the mid-to-upper $50s. Conversely, if the head-and shoulders pattern fails, it could invalidate the bearish set-up and may provide the basis for a much stronger advance from current levels.

Netflix share price, 2024 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic and company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases and UK- or US-listed company results include:

Monday 13 July

• US: June monthly budget statement
• Results: FB Financial (Q2)

Tuesday 14 July

• China: June trade balance
• US: June consumer price index (CPI)
• Results: Bank of America (Q2), Citigroup (Q2), Goldman Sachs (Q2), JP Morgan Chase (Q2), Wells Fargo (Q2)

Wednesday 15 July

• Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
• China: Q2 gross domestic product (GDP)
• Eurozone: May industrial production
• US: June producer price index (PPI), Fed’s Beige Book
• Results: ASML (Q2), BlackRock (Q2), Conagra (Q4), First Horizon (Q2), Johnson & Johnson (Q2), M&T (15), Morgan Stanley (Q2), United Airlines (Q2)

Thursday 16 July

• Eurozone: May trade balance
• UK: May GDP, May industrial production, May trade balance
• US: July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, June retail sales
• Results: Abbott Laboratories (Q2), Alcoa (Q2), Crest Nicholson (HY), Frasers (FY), GE Aerospace (Q2), Intuitive (Q2) Netflix (Q2), Ocado (FY), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (Q2), UnitedHealth (Q2)

Friday 17 July

• Eurozone: June CPI
• US: June building permits, June housing starts, June industrial production, July Michigan consumer sentiment index
• Results: Burberry (Q1), The Travelers Companies (Q2), Truist (Q2)

Note: Announcements and dates are subject to change. Cross-check times in your timezone using the platform market calendar.

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