The Week Ahead: US and Germany CPI, Cisco earnings

The coming week will see earnings season begin to wind down, with most major technology and AI-related companies having already reported their results. That leaves Cisco as the week's headline company. Investors will also receive key inflation readings from the US and Germany, along with the latest UK gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures.

US CPI

Wednesday 12 August

The US consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show that prices rose 0.2% in July, following a 0.4% decline in June. The annual inflation rate is projected to ease to 3.4% from 3.5%. Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month after remaining unchanged in June. On a year-over-year basis, core inflation is forecast to slow to 2.5% from 2.6%.

The Nasdaq 100 has risen sharply over the past week but could be particularly vulnerable around the CPI release. A hotter-than-expected reading might suggest that June's softer data was an anomaly rather than the beginning of a sustained trend. That could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike rates in September and weigh on risk assets.

The index also faces substantial resistance around 29,900. A breakout could be enough to send the Nasdaq 100 back towards its previous all-time highs. However, given the market's recent rally, any indication that further Fed action may be necessary could unsettle investors and potentially lead the index to fill the 3 August gap near 28,200. A more pronounced decline could eventually bring the index back to the 29 July post-Fed meeting lows around 27,000.

US Nasdaq 100, May 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Germany CPI

Wednesday 12 August

Inflation in Germany accelerated sharply in July. Preliminary data showed consumer prices rising 0.8% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, both above expectations. Analysts forecast both measures to remain unchanged in the month's final reading. Still, they could prove important, particularly if revised higher, making them key to determining whether European Central Bank rate hikes are back on the table in September.

Therefore, the report could serve as a catalyst for the EUR/USD, which has recently strengthened against the dollar. However, the currency has stalled near the 78.6% retracement level following the decline that began in mid-June. The key question is whether the euro remains in a broader downtrend or is poised to extend its recent recovery.

If resistance at the retracement level holds, and the EUR/USD breaks below support around $1.15, it could open the door to a decline towards $1.135. Conversely, if the euro continues higher, its next significant resistance level will likely be around $1.165.

EUR/USD, March 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Cisco Q4 earnings

Wednesday 12 August

Cisco is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results. Earnings are expected to rise 18.2% to $1.17 a share, while revenue is projected to increase 14.7% to $16.8bn. Gross margin is forecast to contract to 66.0% from 68.4% a year earlier.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, analysts expect earnings to grow 15.8% to $1.16 a share. Revenue is projected to rise 12.9% to $16.8bn, while gross margin is expected to decline to 66.1% from 68.1% a year earlier. The stock is expected to see a post-earnings move of 7.3%.

Cisco's options positioning has a bullish bias, which could leave the shares vulnerable to a post-earnings sell-off as implied volatility and hedging flows unwind. A large level of put gamma is concentrated near $110 and could act as support, while call-gamma exposure suggests resistance around $130.

The technical chart reinforces those options-implied levels. Cisco has climbed to an all-time high but faces resistance near $130, with support around $110. A break below $110 could lead to a retracement towards $100, allowing the stock to fill the gap created on 14 May.

Cisco share price, January 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic & company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases, plus selected UK, US and other listed company results:

Monday 10 August
• Eurozone: August Sentix investor confidence
• Results: HgCapital Trust (Prelim. Q2), Marshalls (HY)

Tuesday 11 August
• Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
• US: July ADP employment change, July existing home sales
• UK: July British Retail Consortium retail sales
• Results: Atalaya Mining (HY), CoreWeave (Q2), Genuit Group (HY), InterContinental Hotels Group (HY), Spirax Group (HY)

Wednesday 12 August
• Germany: July consumer price index (CPI)
• US: July CPI
• Results: Balfour Beatty (HY), Cisco Systems (Q4), CLS Holdings (HY)

Thursday 13 August
• UK: Q2 gross domestic product, June manufacturing and industrial production
• US: July producer price index
• Results: Antofagasta (HY), Applied Materials (Q3), Costain Group (HY), Rank Group (FY), Savills (HY), Secure Trust Bank (HY)

Friday 14 August
• US: July retail sales, August Michigan consumer sentiment index
• Results: Aviva (HY)

Note: Announcements and dates are subject to change. Cross-check times in your timezone using the platform market calendar.

Disclaimer: This article provides general information only. It has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments, or as a recommendation and/or investment advice. It does not intend to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any financial instruments. You should consider your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting on the information in this article. CMC Markets believes that the information in this article is correct, and any opinions and conclusions are reasonably held or made on information available at the time of its compilation, but no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statements made in this article. CMC Markets is under no obligation to, and does not, update or keep current the information contained in this article. Neither CMC Markets nor any of its affiliates or subsidiaries accepts liability for loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this article. Any opinions or conclusions set forth in this article are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or conclusions expressed by any other members of CMC Markets.