The Week Ahead: Global PMIs, Australia labour report, Costco earnings

Compared with recent weeks, financial markets may have fewer catalysts, with limited economic data, no major central bank announcements, and fewer earnings releases. This will give markets a chance to digest events over the past week and a half, including central bank meetings and updated guidance on the likely direction of monetary policy.

The week’s highlights include global purchasing manager indices (PMI) reports, which will help to show the health and direction of activity across the manufacturing and services sectors of major economies, and Australia’s labour market report, both of which could influence the outlook for Australian interest rates. Meanwhile, Costco’s earnings may offer a glimpse into the health of the US consumer.

Global PMI surveys

Wednesday 23 September

Flash PMI reports will provide an update of global economic conditions and how economies are evolving through September. While the focus is likely to remain on inflation indicators, such as prices paid, other sub-indices will offer clues on whether economic growth is gathering pace, or beginning to slow.

When the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates, it noted that US economic growth appeared to be accelerating, which may have helped justify the decision. Further signs of stronger US growth, or an improvement in the European economy, could significantly affect the euro against the US dollar.

The EUR/USD pair weakened materially after the Fed meeting, testing support around $1.1475. A break below this level may see the euro retreat towards a more significant, longer-standing support level at $1.1360. If support holds, however, the euro could rebound toward 1.156.

EUR/USD, May 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Australia labour report

Thursday 24 September

Markets currently assign about an 82% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% at its next meeting on 29 September. With a rate hike largely priced in, Australia’s August labour market report could help shape expectations for further increases. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.5%, while employment is forecast to rise by 20,000, following a decline of 15,800 in July. The participation rate is expected to hold steady at 66.9%.

Against this backdrop, AUD/JPY has bounced off a key support level around ¥110 over the past few trading sessions. A break below this level may lead to further losses towards ¥108. However, if support holds and the employment data strengthens the case for another rate rise, or for further increases down the line, the pair could rebound towards resistance around ¥112.

The RSI has already bounced from around 30 and recovered towards 50, suggesting bearish momentum has eased and conditions are no longer oversold. If ¥110 continues to hold and momentum improves further, AUD/JPY could extend its recovery towards ¥115. However, if the rebound fades and the pair breaks below ¥110, particularly alongside a shift in relative rate expectations such as a more hawkish Bank of Japan, the next area of support may sit closer to ¥107.

AUD/JPY, January 2026 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Costco earnings

Thursday 24 September

Costco is expected to report revenue of $94.8bn for the fourth quarter of 2026, up around 10% year-on-year. Earnings per share are forecast to rise by 11.2% to $6.53.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, analysts expect similar growth, with revenue forecast to rise by 9% to $73.4bn and earnings per share projected to increase by 8.3% to $4.87. The stock is expected to have a post-earnings move of around 3.1%.

Options positioning in Costco appears bearish, with ‘call options gamma’ indicating significant resistance around the $1,000 level, and ‘put options gamma’ suggesting strong support at $880. This bearish positioning could create room for the shares to move higher after the company reports its results, as options positions and associated hedges unwind.

Technically, Costco is trading near a key support level at $890. A break below this level could send the shares towards $850. If the stock rebounds, it could face initial resistance around $920, followed by a relatively clear path towards $950, where a gap formed on 27 August.

Costco, December 2025 – present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Economic & company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases, plus selected UK, US and other listed company results:

Monday 21 September

• UK: September Rightmove house price index
• China: PBoC interest-rate decision
• US: August Chicago Fed national activity index
• Results: Craneware (FY)

Tuesday 22 September

• Eurozone: September preliminary consumer confidence
• US: September Richmond Fed manufacturing index
• Results: Autozone (Q4), KB Home (Q3), Kingfisher (HY), Smiths Group (FY), Thor Industries (Q4), Worthington Enterprises (Q1)

Wednesday 23 September

• Australia: September preliminary manufacturing & services PMI
• Eurozone: September preliminary manufacturing & services PMI
• UK: September preliminary manufacturing & services PMI
• US: September preliminary manufacturing & services PMI
• Results: Boku (HY), Ceres Power (HY), Cintas (1), General Mills (Q1), HB Fuller (Q3), JD Sports Fashion (HY), Manchester United (Q4), Paychex (Q1), Renishaw (FY), TD Synnex (Q3)

Thursday 24 September

• Australia: August employment change, participation rate & unemployment rate
• Germany: September IFO business climate
• Switzerland: Swiss National Bank interest-rate decision
• US: August new home sales
• Results: BlackBerry (Q2), Costco (Q4), Darden Restaurants (Q1), DFS Furniture (FY), Raspberry PI (HY), Vistry Group (HY)

Friday 25 September

• UK: September GfK consumer confidence
• US: August durable goods orders, September Michigan consumer sentiment
• Results: Bango (HY)

Note: Announcements and dates are subject to change. Cross-check times in your timezone using the platform market calendar.

Disclaimer: This article provides general information only. It has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments, or as a recommendation and/or investment advice. It does not intend to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any financial instruments. You should consider your objectives, financial situation and needs before acting on the information in this article. CMC Markets believes that the information in this article is correct, and any opinions and conclusions are reasonably held or made on information available at the time of its compilation, but no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statements made in this article. CMC Markets is under no obligation to, and does not, update or keep current the information contained in this article. Neither CMC Markets nor any of its affiliates or subsidiaries accepts liability for loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this article. Any opinions or conclusions set forth in this article are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions or conclusions expressed by any other members of CMC Markets.