USD/CAD reaches a critical inflexion point ahead of US jobs data

USD/CAD has continued to move lower over the past several weeks, reflecting further strength in the Canadian dollar. The pair is now at a point where it could either extend its decline, signalling further Canadian dollar strength, or find support and reverse course.

Fibonacci support could determine the next move

USD/CAD rallied substantially between mid-September and mid-October. It has since pulled back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of that rally, an area that has provided firm support since around 23 October.

With potentially important US jobs data due and the US midterm elections behind us, USD/CAD is at an inflexion point. If the pair breaks below this support level, it could extend its decline and return to around C$1.3750, reflecting further strength in the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. However, if this level continues to hold as support, USD/CAD could rebound and move back towards the C$1.4300 region.

USD/CAD, November 2025 – present

Source: TradingView, 4 November 2026

The 10-day EMA remains a resistance test

The pair is also trading close to resistance at its 10-day exponential moving average (EMA). USD/CAD has tested that moving average on a couple of occasions and has remained below it. As long as the pair stays below the moving average, a return to around C$1.3750 remains possible. A break above the moving average would lend further support to the view that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement will hold and that USD/CAD could return to the C$1.4300 region.

USD/CAD, March 2026 – present

Source: TradingView, 4 November 2026