USD/CAD may rebound after cooler Canadian CPI report
USD/CAD has pulled back towards its lower Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Cooler Canadian inflation could support a rebound towards C$1.43, while C$1.3970 remains a downside level to watch.
Founder, Mott Capital Management
USD/CAD has risen substantially since early September but has stalled near C$1.43 since mid-October. The advance forms part of a broader uptrend that began in November 2025.
More recently, the pair has pulled back as the Canadian dollar has strengthened against the US dollar. Falling US interest rates following last week's strong US CPI report have accompanied the move.
For now, the decline appears to be a retracement within the broader uptrend. USD/CAD has fallen towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the advance that began in early September. It has also tested its lower Bollinger Band and bounced after briefly slipping below technical support near C$1.41.
Canadian CPI came in cooler than expected on the morning of 19 October. USD/CAD rebounded following the 8.30am Eastern Time release, bouncing off its lower Bollinger Band. A recovery above C$1.4120 could open the way for a move higher and a retest of resistance near C$1.43.
However, further downside follow-through and continued Canadian-dollar strength could take USD/CAD towards C$1.3970. That would bring the pair back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance that began in early September.
USD/CAD daily, November 2025 – present
Source: TradingView, 19 October 2026
USD/CAD may be ready to surge even higher
USD/CAD is testing resistance near $1.42 after reaching overbought levels. A breakout could reopen the path towards $1.445, while failure may trigger a pullback to key moving-average support.
