USD/CAD may be ready to surge even higher
USD/CAD is testing resistance near $1.42 after reaching overbought levels. A breakout could reopen the path towards $1.445, while failure may trigger a pullback to key moving-average support.
Michael J Kramer
Founder, Mott Capital Management
30 Sept 2026, 08:45
USD/CAD is moving higher towards resistance near $1.42 and could consolidate or pull back in the near term, having reached overbought levels, before potentially making another move back towards the highs seen in 2024. The last time USD/CAD reached the $1.42 region, in June, it stalled and declined back to a support area around $1.375.
A rising USD/CAD rate means the US dollar is gaining against the Canadian dollar. Resistance around $1.42 has been strong since before 2025, when this area played an important role as both support and resistance until USD/CAD fell in April 2025. It has since acted more often as resistance. If USD/CAD can break out and move above $1.42, it could set up a return to $1.445, an FX rate not seen since late 2024 and early 2025.
However, with USD/CAD reaching overbought levels, the relative strength index well above 70, and the pair touching its upper Bollinger Band, it may first see a period of sideways consolidation or even a pullback to its 10-day exponential moving average before any further move higher. That moving average has served as both support and resistance for the FX pair for some time.
If USD/CAD fails at $1.42 and slips back below its 10-day exponential moving average, it risks falling back to its 20-day moving average at $1.40, or even returning to the lower Bollinger Band near $1.37.
USD/CAD daily, November 2024 – present
Source: TradingView, 30 September 2026
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