The Week Ahead: US CPI, UK GDP, Netflix earnings

Published: Friday, 10 July 2026 at 12.30pm (UK)

It will be a busy week for earnings, with several major US banks reporting results, including JPMorgan, Citi, and Bank of America. Investors will also be watching technology companies ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor, whose results remain extremely important to the health of the artificial intelligence (AI) trade.

The week will also bring US consumer price index (CPI) data, along with a gross domestic product (GDP) update on the state of UK economic growth. Finally, Kevin Warsh will make his first trip to the Capitol to testify before the House Financial Services Committee.

US June CPI

Tuesday 14 July
US headline CPI for June is expected to decline 0.1% month-on-month after a 0.5% increase in May. On an annual basis, inflation is forecast to ease to 3.7% from 4.2%. Core CPI, however, is expected to remain elevated, with prices forecast to rise 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2% in May. Annual core inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%.

USD/JPY could be among the FX pairs most affected if the CPI report comes in below expectations. Oil and petrol prices have fallen substantially, creating downside risk for the month-on-month reading and increasing the possibility of a cooler-than-expected inflation reading.

If that were to happen, USD/JPY could weaken below the ¥161.50 level and potentially move back towards the ¥159.50 to ¥160.50 range. While that may not signal the end of the yen’s broader issues, it could represent a short-term victory against the dollar, giving the Bank of Japan and the Japanese government some breathing room.

USD/JPY, May 2024 – present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

UK May GDP

Thursday 16 July
UK GDP growth has improved steadily over recent months. However, last month’s reading marked a setback, and investors will be watching to see whether growth resumes or the slowdown continues.

GBP/USD has been largely range-bound for several months, roughly trading between $1.30 and $1.3750 since April 2025. The pair is now at an important technical juncture, testing a longer-term downtrend that has been in place since January. It’s also trading around the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which are currently acting as resistance, while remaining comfortably above the 20-day moving average.

A stronger-than-expected GDP reading could help the pound strength further against the dollar, potentially pushing it above the 50- and 200-day moving averages. This could then open the door to the next significant resistance area around $1.35.

However, if the pound fails to break above these moving averages, it could retreat towards the 20-day moving average near $1.33, with scope for a further decline towards $1.3150, an area that has provided support since early April.

GBP/USD, November 2025 – present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

Netflix Q2 earnings

Thursday 16 July
Netflix is expected to report second-quarter 2026 earnings of $0.79 a share, representing a 9.7% growth, while revenue is forecast to increase 13.7% year-on-year to $12.6bn. Q3, analysts expect earnings to rise 43.7% to $0.84 a share, with revenue forecast to increase by 13.1% to $13bn. The options market is pricing in a move of around 7.3% following the results.

Options positioning remains relatively bearish, suggesting the shares could rally after the earnings announcement, as implied volatility declines and market makers adjust their hedges. It also suggests the strongest area of resistance is around $90 a share, while support is concentrated near $70.

From a technical perspective, Netflix is trading near an important support level after filling the October 2024 gap around $70. The shares are testing the 20-day moving average, and a move above it could pave the way for a rally towards $82. Netflix is also attempting to break above a longer-term downtrend.

However, there is a longer-term risk that the stock is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, a development that is generally viewed as bearish. The shares have already fallen below the pattern’s neckline near $75, and a sustained break below $70 could strengthen that technical signal, potentially opening the door to a move into the mid-to-upper $50s. Conversely, if the head-and shoulders pattern fails, it could invalidate the bearish set-up and may provide the basis for a much stronger advance from current levels.

Netflix share price, 2024 – present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

Economic and company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases and UK- or US-listed company results include:

Monday 13 July
• US: June monthly budget statement
• Results: FB Financial (Q2)

Tuesday 14 July
• China: June trade balance
• US: June consumer price index (CPI)
• Results: Bank of America (Q2), Citigroup (Q2), Goldman Sachs (Q2), JP Morgan Chase (Q2), Wells Fargo (Q2)

Wednesday 15 July
• Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
• China: Q2 gross domestic product (GDP)
• Eurozone: May industrial production
• US: June producer price index (PPI), Fed’s Beige Book
• Results: ASML (Q2), BlackRock (Q2), Conagra (Q4), First Horizon (Q2), Johnson & Johnson (Q2), M&T (15), Morgan Stanley (Q2), United Airlines (Q2)

Thursday 16 July
• Eurozone: May trade balance
• UK: May GDP, May industrial production, May trade balance
• US: July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, June retail sales
• Results: Abbott Laboratories (Q2), Alcoa (Q2), Crest Nicholson (HY), Frasers (FY), GE Aerospace (Q2), Intuitive (Q2) Netflix (Q2), Ocado (FY), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (Q2), UnitedHealth (Q2)

Friday 17 July
• Eurozone: June CPI
• US: June building permits, June housing starts, June industrial production, July Michigan consumer sentiment index
• Results: Burberry (Q1), The Travelers Companies (Q2), Truist (Q2)