The Week Ahead: UK CPI, global PMIs, Tesla earnings

Published: Friday, 17 July 2026 at 12.30pm (UK)

Corporate earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, Intel, and GE Vernova are likely to dominate markets this week, keeping the AI trade firmly in the headlines. However, inflation and global growth data could still prove important, especially given the dollar's resurgence, which has already pushed the yen to levels not seen in decades, and strengthened the case for central banks to tighten policy.

UK June CPI

Wednesday 22 July
Core consumer price index (CPI) data has fallen markedly over the past year, which is likely to be one reason markets are not pricing in an aggressive rate-hiking cycle from the Bank of England (BoE). That differs from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, as well as the US Federal Reserve, where markets expect a more hawkish policy stance. If the core CPI reading continues to suggest that the BoE is unlikely to raise rates, it could weigh further on the pound against the dollar.

More recently, GBP/USD has recovered towards the $1.3460 area after finding support around $1.3200. However, it's now at trend line resistance near $1.3500, and has so far been unable to sustain a breakout above it. If ‘cable’ does break out, it could pave the way for a retest of the highs around $1.3800, although that scenario may require a ‘hot’ CPI figure to encourage such a move. However, if GBP/USD remains below the trend line at $1.3500, the pair could move back towards support around $1.3200, retesting the March and June lows.

GBP/USD, April 2025 – present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

Tesla Q2 earnings

Wednesday 22 July
The NASDAQ-listed electric vehicle maker is expected to report Q2 earnings growth of 25.6% to $0.50, while revenue is forecast to increase by 13.9% to $25.6bn. Gross profit margins are forecast to expand to 19.3%, up from 18.2% a year earlier.

For the third quarter, analysts estimate earnings will grow 3.1% to $0.52, while revenue is expected to decline 4.2% to $26.9bn. Gross profit margins are forecast to rise to 19.3%, up from 18% in the third quarter of 2025. The stock could see a post-earnings move of around 6.7%.

Option positioning in Tesla remains bullish ahead of the announcement. After the results, as implied volatility declines, dealer hedging flows could turn bearish, pushing the shares lower. Meanwhile, options gamma positioning suggests that $420 is a major resistance level for Tesla, while $380 is a key support level.

The technical picture indicates that a symmetrical triangle is forming, which typically signals a continuation of the prevailing trend. In this case, it implies a move lower. The relative strength index, a measure of momentum, has also been weakening, indicating bearish momentum. A break below $380 could see the shares fall towards the next support level around $370, with a further decline potentially extending to around $335.

Tesla share price, March 2025 – present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

Global flash PMI

Friday 24 July
Global growth has remained in expansion territory, despite rising energy prices and renewed inflationary pressures. However, the US dollar has been the clear winner over the past couple of months, and any signs of improving US growth could reinforce its resurgence and push USD/JPY higher.

The dollar-yen currency pair has already climbed to its highest level in decades, and is now consolidating in what appears to be a symmetrical triangle pattern. An upside breakout could open the door to a move towards ¥165. If US growth data is weaker than expected, USD/JPY could break through the triangle and drop back to ¥160.50. For USD/JPY to move lower, it will need to break below the 20-day moving average, which has acted as support for the FX pair since mid-May.

USD/JPY, December 2025 – present

Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer

Economic & company events calendar

Major scheduled data releases, plus UK-, US-listed and selected other company results:

Monday 20 July
• Canada: June consumer price index (CPI)
• Germany: June producer price index (PPI)
• Results: AGNC Investment (Q2), AMC Entertainment (Q2), Crown (Q2), Ryanair (Q1), Steel Dynamics (Q2), W R Berkley (Q2)

Tuesday 21 July
• Eurozone: ECB bank lending survey (BLS), July ZEW economic sentiment survey
• UK: May average earnings, May unemployment rate
• Results: 3M (Q2), Capital One (Q2), Compass (Q3), Charles Schwab (Q2), Chubb (Q2), Danaher (Q2), General Motors (Q2), Novartis (Q2)

Wednesday 22 July
• Japan: June imports/exports, June trade balance
• UK: June CPI, June PPI, June retail price index (RPI)
• Results: Alphabet (Q2), AT&T (Q2), GE Vernova (Q2), Philip Morris International (Q2), Reach (HY), Tesla (Q2), Texas Instruments (Q2)

Thursday 23 July
• Australia: June unemployment rate
• Canada: May retail sales
• Eurozone: ECB monetary policy statement & press conference, July (preliminary) consumer confidence
• Results: Comcast (Q2), Howden Joinery (HY), Intel (Q2), Jupiter Fund Management (HY), Lockheed Martin (Q2), Morgan Sindall (HY), Nestle (HY), Newmont (Q2), Roche (HY), RTX (Q2), SAP (Q2), Thermo Fisher Scientific (Q2), T-Mobile (Q2)

Friday 24 July
• Australia: July (preliminary) manufacturing & services PMIs
• Japan: June CPI
• UK: July consumer confidence, June retail sales, July (preliminary) manufacturing & services PMIs
• US: July (preliminary) manufacturing & services PMIs, June new home sales
• Results: American Express (Q2), Canadian National Railway Company (Q2), HCA Healthcare (Q2), NextEra Energy (Q2), Verizon Communications (Q2)